How does FightIQ make its picks?

FightIQ breaks down every fight on the card using publicly available stats and fight history from UFC.com, ESPN, Sherdog and Tapology. That includes newer prospects from Dana White's Contender Series. Each pick comes with a predicted winner, method and round based on how each fighter has actually finished fights.

Does FightIQ cover every fight on the card?

Yes. Every bout is covered, from the early prelims to the main event. A pick is only held back when a fighter's data fails our checks, and it goes up once the data is fixed.

How do you predict a UFC fight?

Start with how each fighter wins and loses. Compare striking volume and accuracy, takedown offense against takedown defense, finishing rate, cardio over three or five rounds, and quality of past opponents. Then look at the style matchup, because a great wrestler facing weak takedown defense matters more than either fighter's overall record.

How accurate are UFC predictions?

Betting favorites win roughly two out of three UFC fights, so any model worth following needs to beat that mark or find value on underdogs. No one predicts MMA perfectly. Small gloves and many ways to win make it one of the most unpredictable sports there is.

FightIQ / UFC PicksWinner · Method · Round

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the bell.

Every fight on the card called before the walkouts and graded after the bell. Built on fight data, not hype.

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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Sun, Nov 1Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States

Round Clock

Days

Hours

Min

Sec

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Tom Nolan

Blue Corner

21-7-1Record11-1-0

72"Reach73"

62%Finish rate18%

57%Win Probability43%

See the full card

FightIQ Locks of the Night

AI's 3 most-confident picks

Jacobe Smith

13-0

Randy Brown

20-8

Jacobe Smith

KO/TKO

92%

Nick Klein

6-3

Joe Kropschot

9-3

Joe Kropschot

Submission

82%

Dakota Hope

11-2

Francis Marshall

10-3

Francis Marshall

Decision

76%

Track Record · Last 90 Days

The Scoreboard

Every pick graded after the bell

Winner Picks Hit

110 of 192 graded fights

Method Called Right

88 of 192 graded picks

Round Called Right

42 of 68 finished fights

All-time: 122 of 212 winners (58%)Full record, every pick

Real Slips · Linked to the Exact Pick

Cashed With FightIQ

All 11 slips

11 winning slips, $3,168.86 paid out on $1,225.31 wagered. Every leg links back to the pick FightIQ posted before the fight.

This bettor cashed $514.29 riding FightIQ's Value Play on Mike Malott

Wager

$300.00

Payout

$514.29

Odds

-140

+$214.29 profit

Mike Malott
-140
Value Play
FightIQ called Mike Malott by Decision
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 16, before the opening bell

This bettor cashed $129.50 riding FightIQ's Lock of the Night on Cristian Perez Gonzalez

Wager

$35.00

Payout

$129.50

Odds

+270

+$94.50 profit

Cristian Perez to win by KO/TKO in Round 1
+270
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Cristian Perez Gonzalez by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 17, before the opening bell

This bettor turned $25 into $302.89 with a 3 leg parlay built on FightIQ picks, including 2 Locks of the Night

Wager

$25.00

Payout

$302.89

Odds

+1111

+$277.89 profit

Steven Koslow by Submission
+190
FightIQ Pick
FightIQ called Steven Koslow by Submission in Round 1
See the pick
Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO
-135
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick
Cristian Perez by KO/TKO
+140
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Cristian Perez Gonzalez by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 17, before the opening bell

This bettor turned $50 into $421.26 with a 3 leg parlay built on FightIQ picks, including 2 Locks of the Night

Wager

$50.00

Payout

$421.26

Odds

+742

+$371.26 profit

Steven Koslow by Submission
+120
FightIQ Pick
FightIQ called Steven Koslow by Submission in Round 1
See the pick
Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO
-135
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick
Cristian Perez by KO/TKO
+120
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Cristian Perez Gonzalez by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 17, before the opening bell

This bettor cashed $315.00 riding the FightIQ pick on Tanner Boser

Wager

$35.00

Payout

$315.00

Odds

+800

+$280.00 profit

Tanner Boser by KO/TKO
+800
FightIQ Pick
FightIQ called Tanner Boser by KO/TKO in Round 2
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 17, before the opening bell

This bettor cashed $358.33 riding FightIQ's Lock of the Night on Mandel Nallo

Wager

$215.00

Payout

$358.33

Odds

-150

+$143.33 profit

Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO
-150
Lock of the Night
FightIQ called Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO in Round 1
See the pick

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Pick posted Oct 17, before the opening bell

These are real winning slips placed on FightIQ picks, with bet IDs and account balances hidden. This section shows winners only. Losing bets are not shown here, so check the full graded record for every pick, win or lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How The Model Works

Three Rounds To A Pick

The Tape

Career records and per-minute striking and grappling stats pulled from official UFC.com and ESPN fight data. Every number is verified before it touches the model.

The Matchup

Styles, reach, camp pedigree and each fighter's own finish history are weighed against each other to find the real edges, not the hype.

The Call

The model commits to a winner, method and round. Picks are locked before the walkouts and graded after the bell, and the misses are published in full.

Full Card

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Full breakdown

FAQ

Between Rounds

Get the picks before the walkouts.

Winner, method and round, locked before the bell and graded after it. Free, every card.

See This Card's Picks

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Blog breakdowns and cashed slips, sent every Thursday morning.

Know beforethe bell.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

FightIQ Locks of the Night

The Scoreboard

Cashed With FightIQ

This bettor cashed $514.29 riding FightIQ's Value Play on Mike Malott

This bettor cashed $129.50 riding FightIQ's Lock of the Night on Cristian Perez Gonzalez

This bettor turned $25 into $302.89 with a 3 leg parlay built on FightIQ picks, including 2 Locks of the Night

This bettor turned $50 into $421.26 with a 3 leg parlay built on FightIQ picks, including 2 Locks of the Night

This bettor cashed $315.00 riding the FightIQ pick on Tanner Boser

This bettor cashed $358.33 riding FightIQ's Lock of the Night on Mandel Nallo

Three Rounds To A Pick

The Tape

The Matchup

The Call

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Between Rounds

Is FightIQ free?

Where does the data come from?

What makes a pick a 'Lock'?

How does the model learn?

When are picks locked in?

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