UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO (R1)
Mandel Nallo 67% to win · Medium confidence
Mandel Nallo
67%
Nate Landwehr
33%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The numbers point to Mandel Nallo, who rates 26 points higher than Nate Landwehr (58 vs 32) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

The massive discrepancy in competition quality; while Nallo has finished everyone he has faced, he has done so primarily outside of the UFC, whereas Landwehr has accumulated 19 fights worth of high-level defensive data against fighters like Cub Swanson and Morgan Charriere.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Mandel Nallo, who rates 26 points higher than Nate Landwehr (58 vs 32) and holds the data-backed edge.

Why FightIQ Likes Nallo

1
Striking

Nallo averages 8.26 sig-strikes/min vs Landwehr's 5.55

2
Durability

Landwehr has 7 KO/TKO losses in 19 UFC fights

Expert Breakdown

•Nallo averages 8.26 sig-strikes/min vs Landwehr's 5.55
•Nallo carries 5.39 knockdowns/15 while Landwehr is at 0.15
•Landwehr holds 0.73 sub attempts/15
•Nallo has 0 sub attempts/15 in UFC data
•Landwehr maintains 72% takedown defense
•Nallo has 0% takedown defense with no UFC offensive wrestling
•Landwehr average fight time 9:21
•Nallo average fight time 2:47
•Landwehr has 7 KO/TKO losses in 19 UFC fights
•Nallo has 1 KO/TKO loss in 1 UFC fight
•Landwehr has 19 UFC fights
•Nallo has 1 UFC fight
•Both fighters are coming off losses
•Last wins: Landwehr vs Swanson, Nallo vs Silva

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Mandel Nallo has the output edge.

Who drives it

Mandel Nallo

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Mandel Nallo 8.26/min vs Nate Landwehr 5.55/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 98%Clinch 0%Ground 2%

Mandel Nallo's path

Out-volume Nate Landwehr at distance; 5.39 knockdowns/min if Nate Landwehr walks in.

Nate Landwehr's path

Out-volume Mandel Nallo at distance; 0.15 knockdowns/min if Mandel Nallo walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -5.23" reach advantage +0.9Style matchup edge +1.9Camp unknown 0

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Mandel Nallo
  • Nate Landwehr

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.