UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz Prediction

Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
"The Bulldozer"
22-11-1
Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score67
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
9-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser by KO/TKO (R2)
Tanner Boser 56% to win · Medium confidence
Tanner Boser
56.1%
Jhonata Diniz
43.9%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"This is a toss-up between two heavyweights who have both struggled with durability at the UFC level. Boser holds the edge in striking output and, while the data is thin, his ability to outpoint opponents like Aleksa Camur gives him a slight technical advantage over Diniz in a contest that is likely to remain standing."

What Everyone Misses

The reach differential of 4 inches favors Diniz significantly, but his inability to consistently use that range to avoid damage against technical strikers like Marcin Tybura suggests Boser can close the distance and land the higher volume of strikes.

Why FightIQ Likes Boser

1
Striking

Boser averages 4.82 sig-strikes/min vs Diniz's 3.89

2
Cardio

Boser avg fight time 10:52

Expert Breakdown

•Boser averages 4.82 sig-strikes/min vs Diniz's 3.89
•Diniz holds a higher knockdown rate at 0.75 per 15 mins
•Neither fighter shows significant takedown offense stats
•Both fighters share a 70% takedown defense rating
•Boser has 0 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Diniz has 0 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Boser avg fight time 10:52
•Diniz avg fight time 9:56
•Boser has been knocked out in 2 of his 3 losses
•Diniz has been stopped in 3 of his 3 losses
•Boser has faced Aleksa Camur and Ion Cutelaba
•Diniz has faced Marcin Tybura and Karl Williams
•Boser lost his most recent bout to Gokhan Saricam
•Diniz lost his most recent bout to Mario Pinto

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Tanner Boser has the output edge.

Who drives it

Tanner Boser

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Tanner Boser 4.82/min vs Jhonata Diniz 3.89/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Tanner Boser's path

Out-volume Jhonata Diniz at distance; 0.25 knockdowns/min if Jhonata Diniz walks in.

Jhonata Diniz's path

Out-volume Tanner Boser at distance; 0.75 knockdowns/min if Tanner Boser walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent power vs chin edge -0.74" reach disadvantage -1.2Style matchup edge +1.8Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3Ring rust edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Tanner Boser
  • Jhonata Diniz

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.