UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow Prediction

Chad Anheliger
Chad Anheliger
"The Monster"
13-9
Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score56
Steven Koslow
Steven Koslow
"Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow"
7-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Steven Koslow
Steven Koslow by Submission (R1)
Steven Koslow 67% to win · Medium confidence
Chad Anheliger
33%
Steven Koslow
67%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"The numbers point to Steven Koslow, who rates 24 points higher than Chad Anheliger (57 vs 33) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

The massive discrepancy in activity and the jump in competition level for Koslow; his last five wins all occurred on the regional circuit before a knockout loss in his only UFC appearance, while Anheliger has been battle-tested against UFC-caliber fighters like Cody Gibson and Charalampos Grigoriou.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Steven Koslow, who rates 24 points higher than Chad Anheliger (57 vs 33) and holds the data-backed edge.

Why FightIQ Likes Koslow

1
Grappling

Koslow holds a 100% career finish rate, all via submission.

Expert Breakdown

•Anheliger landing 3.11 sig. strikes/min at 46% accuracy.
•Koslow lacks sufficient UFC-level striking volume data.
•Koslow holds a 100% career finish rate, all via submission.
•Anheliger averages 0.5 sub attempts/15 minutes.
•Anheliger possesses 38% TD defense.
•Koslow relies on his Jiu-Jitsu to get the fight to the mat.
•Anheliger has gone the distance in 4 of 5 UFC fights.
•Koslow has not seen the later stages of a fight in his professional career.
•Koslow lost via KO/TKO in his sole UFC outing.
•Anheliger has one stoppage loss in five UFC fights.
•Anheliger has 5 UFC fights vs. Koslow's 1.
•Anheliger has faced Cody Gibson, Charalampos Grigoriou, and Alatengheili.
•Anheliger is 1-4 in his last 5 bouts.
•Koslow has not competed since December 2022.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, who lands first.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Chad Anheliger 3.11/min vs Steven Koslow 3.11/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 91%Clinch 0%Ground 9%

Chad Anheliger's path

Out-volume Steven Koslow at distance; power on the counter if Steven Koslow walks in.

Steven Koslow's path

Out-volume Chad Anheliger at distance; power on the counter if Chad Anheliger walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +0.65" reach disadvantage -1.5Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Chad Anheliger
  • Steven Koslow

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Chad Anheliger
Chad Anheliger
Steven Koslow
Steven Koslow