UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mike Malott
Mike Malott by Decision
Mike Malott 65% to win · Low confidence
Joaquin Buckley
34.7%
Mike Malott
65.3%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Mike Malott enters with superior momentum and a significantly higher finishing rate compared to Joaquin Buckley, who has struggled through three consecutive decision losses. Malott’s ability to find finishes on the feet and the mat creates a multi-layered path to victory that Buckley’s current form does not match."

What Everyone Misses

While Buckley possesses reach, his 36% striking accuracy indicates a struggle to connect against disciplined opponents, allowing Malott to capitalize on his own 48% accuracy and superior versatility to dictate the engagement range.

Why FightIQ Likes Malott

1
Striking

Malott lands 4.02 sig strikes/min vs Buckley's 3.62

2
Grappling

Malott averages 0.65 submission attempts/15 minutes

3
Wrestling

Malott averages 1.63 takedowns/15 minutes

Expert Breakdown

•Malott lands 4.02 sig strikes/min vs Buckley's 3.62
•Malott maintains 48% striking accuracy compared to Buckley's 36%
•Malott averages 0.65 submission attempts/15 minutes
•Buckley has minimal submission engagement data
•Malott averages 1.63 takedowns/15 minutes
•Buckley has a 70% takedown defense rating
•Malott average fight time 9:12
•Buckley average fight time 11:45
•Malott has 1 KO loss in his career
•Buckley has zero career KO losses
•Malott holds wins over Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland
•Buckley holds a win over Colby Covington
•Malott is on a 4-fight win streak
•Buckley is on a 3-fight loss streak

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Mike Malott has the output edge.

Who drives it

Mike Malott

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Joaquin Buckley 3.62/min vs Mike Malott 4.02/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%

Joaquin Buckley's path

Out-volume Mike Malott at distance; 0.68 knockdowns/min if Mike Malott walks in.

Mike Malott's path

Out-volume Joaquin Buckley at distance; 0.82 knockdowns/min if Joaquin Buckley walks in.

What moved the number

3" reach advantage +0.9Southpaw vs orthodox +0.8Opponent momentum edge -0.3Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Joaquin Buckley
  • Mike Malott

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.