Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon Prediction

Lightweight· October 24, 2026
The Pick
Winner Noah GugnonMethod KO/TKORound 168%High

Noah Gugnon will secure a swift victory over Kody Steele by stopping him in the first round at UFC 333. This lightweight clash features a battle between a gritty veteran and a rising prospect with serious power.

The Numbers

FightIQ ratings are not on file for both fighters yet, so their records and recent form carry the read. The model win probability for Noah Gugnon stands at 68%, rated High confidence.

The Lightweight Division Matchup

The lightweight division continues to evolve with this intriguing clash at UFC 333. Kody Steele brings his experience and a record of 8-1-0 into the cage to test his skills against the younger challenger. Noah Gugnon arrives with a 10-2-0 record looking to make a statement in his second appearance under the banner. Fans can expect a high stakes battle that could shake up the division hierarchy.

How Steele Finds Success

Kody Steele relies on his ability to neutralize offensive threats with his wrestling base. He maintains a perfect 100% takedown defense rate which forces opponents to trade strikes on the feet. With 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute he looks to pressure his rivals and dictate the pace of the fight. Keeping the distance and managing the clock will be his primary goals in this 3 round encounter.

Path to Gugnon Victory

Noah Gugnon enters the octagon as the aggressor with a focus on finishing the fight early. He lands his strikes with an accuracy of 45.45% and possesses a reliable 68% strike defense. His extreme activity on the ground where he averages 11.11 submission attempts per 15 minutes makes him a constant threat in all phases. He will look to catch his opponent off guard and end the fight before the end of the opening round.

Where the Fight Happens

The outcome of this fight will likely be decided within the first few minutes of the opening round. Steele wants to extend the duration of the fight to force his opponent into deep waters. Gugnon thrives in chaotic exchanges and will push for a finish the moment the fight begins. The fighter who asserts control during the initial striking exchanges will set the tone for the rest of the night.

The Final Verdict

We are locking in Noah Gugnon to secure a knockout or technical knockout victory in round 1. His ability to create finishing opportunities is a massive factor that will prove too much for the opposition. We have high confidence in this outcome as the younger fighter looks to continue his climb through the rankings. This is our official pick for the lightweight bout at UFC 333.

Weekly Newsletter

Get FightIQ picks in your inbox every week

Blog breakdowns and cashed slips, sent every Thursday morning.