UFC 333

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon Prediction

Kody Steele
Kody Steele
8-1
-155
Odds-155
Lightweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Noah Gugnon
Noah Gugnon
"Guns"
10-2
+130
Odds+130

Betting Odds

closing line · 16 snapshots
Kody Steele
-154BetOnline.ag
4 ptsopen -158
58.3% impliedEdge -26.3
Noah Gugnon
+135BetMGM
10 ptsopen +145
40.9% impliedEdge +27.1

Line movement since opening

Oct 20 13:01Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0139%46%53%63%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Noah Gugnon
Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO (R1)
Noah Gugnon 68% to win · High confidence
Kody Steele
31.9%
Noah Gugnon
68.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"Noah Gugnon shows significant finishing potential and momentum, though his lack of established UFC defensive stats makes this a high-variance matchup. Kody Steele is the more experienced UFC fighter, but Gugnon's finishing rate and recent activity suggest he is the more dangerous threat early in the fight."

What Everyone Misses

Gugnon's extreme submission volume per 15 minutes is a massive outlier; even if he hasn't faced top-tier wrestlers yet, his ability to force chaotic scrambles often leads to opportunistic finishes that negate the technical wrestling experience of his opponents.

FightIQ Blog

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon Prediction and Pick

Noah Gugnon will secure a swift victory over Kody Steele by stopping him in the first round at UFC 333. This lightweight clash features a battle between a gritty veteran and a rising prospect with serious power.

Why FightIQ Likes Gugnon

1
Striking

Gugnon has higher striking accuracy at 45.45% vs Steele's 33%

2
Grappling

Gugnon shows exceptional activity with 11.11 submission attempts per 15 minutes

3
Momentum

Gugnon is on a 5-fight win streak since December 2024

Expert Breakdown

•Gugnon has higher striking accuracy at 45.45% vs Steele's 33%
•Gugnon displays a significantly higher striking defense of 68% compared to Steele's 52%
•Gugnon shows exceptional activity with 11.11 submission attempts per 15 minutes
•Steele has a 0.53 submission attempt rate per 15 minutes
•Steele maintains a 100% takedown defense rate
•Gugnon has no recorded takedown offense or defensive data in the UFC
•Steele's average fight time is 9:21
•Gugnon has not yet been tested in long-form matches
•Gugnon has a 100% finish rate and has not been finished himself
•Steele suffered a decision loss to Rongzhu
•Steele has faced Rongzhu and Dom Mar Fan in the UFC
•Gugnon's recent opponents include Miloš Janičić and Bruno Matos
•Gugnon is on a 5-fight win streak since December 2024
•Steele has an alternating W-L record in his last two outings

How This Fight Plays Out

Kody Steele stays up and strikes.

Who drives it

Kody Steele

Hinge stat

Kody Steele's takedown defense

100%: if Kody Steele stays upright it's a striking fight

Projected location

Distance 69%Clinch 2%Ground 29%

Kody Steele's path

Keep it at distance, 3.85 strikes/min; deny the clinch.

Noah Gugnon's path

Pull guard or chain takedowns; 11.11 sub attempts/15 on the mat.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +6.4Opponent momentum edge -0.5Style matchup edge +1.2Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Kody Steele
  • Noah Gugnon

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Kody Steele
Kody Steele
Noah Gugnon
Noah Gugnon