Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov Fight Week Breakdown and Prediction

Bantamweight· October 24, 2026
The Pick
Winner Colby ThicknesseMethod DecisionRound Distance68%High

FightIQ rating gap 4 points. Colby Thicknesse rates 56 and Asaf Chopurov rates 52.

Colby Thicknesse holds the advantage as he takes on Asaf Chopurov in this bantamweight showdown at UFC 333. Our official pick is Colby Thicknesse winning by decision over 3 rounds.

The Numbers

Colby Thicknesse carries a FightIQ rating of 56 and Asaf Chopurov sits at 52, a gap of 4 points. The model win probability for Colby Thicknesse stands at 68%, rated High confidence.

Tactical Approach for Thicknesse

Colby Thicknesse brings a wealth of experience into this matchup with 5 UFC appearances under his belt. He must rely on his veteran composure to neutralize the aggressive nature of his opponent. By maintaining a steady pace and staying disciplined in his defensive movements he can dictate the flow of the 3 round contest.

Chopurov Entering the Octagon

Asaf Chopurov enters this bout with an undefeated record of 11-0-0 and an impressive finish rate of 91%. He thrives on finishing fights quickly and will likely look for an early knockout. His ability to adapt to the pressure of a debut performance will determine how well he handles the challenge presented by a tested opponent.

Keys to Controlling Action

The primary objective for Thicknesse involves managing the distance and preventing Chopurov from landing heavy power shots. If Thicknesse successfully forces the fight into later rounds he will likely exhaust his opponent and gain control of the scorecards. Staying technical and avoiding early traps remains the most important factor for his success.

Determining the Final Result

The fight hinges on whether Chopurov can overcome the technical gap and find a finish before he tires out. If Thicknesse keeps his composure and avoids critical mistakes he will earn the nod from the judges. Our call remains Colby Thicknesse to secure a decision victory over the full distance.

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