UFC 333

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov Prediction

Betting Odds

closing line · 23 snapshots
Colby Thicknesse
+482BetOnline.ag
78 ptsopen +404
16.5% impliedEdge +51.5
Asaf Chopurov
-590BetRivers
140 ptsopen -450
81.3% impliedEdge -49.3

Line movement since opening

Oct 19 17:25Oct 19 17:31Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0115%35%55%88%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Colby Thicknesse
Colby Thicknesse by Decision
Colby Thicknesse 68% to win · High confidence
Colby Thicknesse
68.1%
Asaf Chopurov
31.9%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"One or both fighters have no synced UFC per-minute stats, this pick is grounded on regional/Sherdog-Tapology records (finish rate, method splits, finish rounds, streak, activity), not UFC-level stats. Confidence is capped accordingly. Colby Thicknesse is the lean based strictly on his proven 3-fight UFC tenure against professional caliber opposition, whereas Asaf Chopurov enters with zero UFC experience. While Chopurov's regional finishing rate is high, the massive step up to the UFC stage against Thicknesse's established pacing makes this a classic prospect-versus-veteran test where the data gap dictates caution."

What Everyone Misses

The transition from Tier 3 and Tier 5 regional organizations to the UFC floor is often marred by 'octagon jitters' and an inability to maintain high intensity under the bright lights, which is a hurdle Thicknesse has already cleared over three appearances.

Executive Summary

Colby Thicknesse is the lean based strictly on his proven 3-fight UFC tenure against professional caliber opposition, whereas Asaf Chopurov enters with zero UFC experience. While Chopurov's regional finishing rate is high, the massive step up to the UFC stage against Thicknesse's established pacing makes this a classic prospect-versus-veteran test where the data gap dictates caution.

FightIQ Blog

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov Prediction and Pick

Colby Thicknesse secures a tactical win against the undefeated Asaf Chopurov in a gritty bantamweight battle. The fight goes the full 3 rounds and ends in a decision for Thicknesse.

Why FightIQ Likes Thicknesse

1
Striking

Thicknesse has competed in 45 minutes of UFC action.

2
Wrestling

Thicknesse faced top-tier grapplers in the UFC.

3
Cardio

Thicknesse has completed three 15-minute bouts in the UFC.

Expert Breakdown

•Thicknesse has competed in 45 minutes of UFC action.
•Chopurov relies on regional power with no verified UFC striking data.
•Thicknesse has a recorded submission win on his resume.
•Chopurov finished 5 regional opponents via submission.
•Thicknesse faced top-tier grapplers in the UFC.
•Chopurov's wrestling remains untested against UFC-tier athletes.
•Thicknesse has completed three 15-minute bouts in the UFC.
•Chopurov has limited experience in extended, high-pace professional rounds.
•Thicknesse has only one career loss via decision.
•Chopurov has no professional losses to date.
•Thicknesse: 3 UFC fights (Vince Morales, Josias Musasa, Aleksandre Topuria).
•Chopurov: 0 UFC fights (Wins vs Reece McLaren, Adriano Ramos).
•Thicknesse is on a 2-fight win streak.
•Chopurov is 11-0 including wins over Reece McLaren and Adriano Ramos.

How This Fight Plays Out

Insufficient data: one or both fighters have no UFC striking or grappling stats, so the style interaction and likely location of the fight can't be projected yet. These populate once the weekly sync hydrates their numbers.