UFC 333

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev Prediction

Betting Odds

closing line · 15 snapshots
Nikita Krylov
+430FanDuel
40 ptsopen +390
18.1% impliedEdge +48.9
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
-550DraftKings
100 ptsopen -450
81.2% impliedEdge -48.2

Line movement since opening

Oct 20 13:01Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0117%37%57%87%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov by Decision
Nikita Krylov 67% to win · High confidence
Nikita Krylov
67%
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
33%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The numbers point to Nikita Krylov, who rates 22 points higher than Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (75 vs 53 FightIQ rating) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

The extreme disparity in takedown efficiency; Yakhyaev operates at a staggering 11.11 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Krylov's negligible 1.67% TD accuracy, meaning Krylov will likely be forced into a defensive cycle for the entirety of the fight.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Nikita Krylov, who rates 22 points higher than Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (75 vs 53 FightIQ rating) and holds the data-backed edge.

FightIQ Blog

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev Prediction and Pick

Nikita Krylov uses his veteran experience and durability to overcome the undefeated prospect Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev over 3 rounds. We pick Krylov to secure a decision victory in this light heavyweight matchup at UFC 333.

Why FightIQ Likes Krylov

1
Experience

Krylov has 20 UFC appearances against Robert Whittaker and Ryan Spann

Expert Breakdown

•Yakhyaev lands 8.64 sig-strikes/min vs Krylov 4.38
•Yakhyaev maintains 68% striking accuracy compared to Krylov 54%
•Yakhyaev averages 7.4 sub attempts/15 minutes
•Krylov has lost via submission twice in his UFC career
•Yakhyaev maintains 100% TD defense and 75% TD accuracy
•Krylov has a 53% TD defense rating
•Yakhyaev maintains high finish rates in Round 1
•Krylov has shown fatigue in late-round exchanges against Robert Whittaker
•Krylov has lost 5 fights via KO/TKO
•Yakhyaev has zero professional losses and has never been stopped
•Krylov has 20 UFC appearances against Robert Whittaker and Ryan Spann
•Yakhyaev is 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Julius Walker and Brendson Ribeiro
•Yakhyaev is on a 4-fight win streak defeating Julius Walker and Brendson Ribeiro
•Krylov is coming off a loss to Robert Whittaker

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev has the output edge.

Who drives it

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Nikita Krylov 4.38/min vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 8.64/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 66%Clinch 5%Ground 30%

Nikita Krylov's path

Out-volume Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev at distance; power on the counter if Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev walks in.

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev's path

Out-volume Nikita Krylov at distance; power on the counter if Nikita Krylov walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -3.4Opponent momentum edge -0.4Opponent style edge -1.5Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Nikita Krylov
  • Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.