UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov Prediction

Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score61
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov
18-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov by Decision
Ikram Aliskerov 68% to win · High confidence
Jared Cannonier
31.9%
Ikram Aliskerov
68.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"While Jared Cannonier brings significant UFC tenure and a FightIQ rating of 88, his recent slide and age disadvantage are difficult to ignore against a surging Ikram Aliskerov. Aliskerov’s wrestling credentials and clean striking metrics suggest he can dictate the location of the fight, though his limited sample size in the UFC necessitates caution."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans will focus on Jared Cannonier's historical power and veteran resume, failing to recognize that Ikram Aliskerov's 100% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy (60% vs 53.38%) allow him to nullify Cannonier’s primary threat while winning the exchanges at range.

FightIQ Blog

Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov Prediction and Pick

Ikram Aliskerov will defeat Jared Cannonier by decision when they meet at UFC Fight Night. This middleweight contest features an experienced veteran facing a rising prospect over 3 rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Aliskerov

1
Striking

Aliskerov: 5.56 sig-str/min at 60% accuracy

2
Grappling

Aliskerov: 3.82 takedowns per 15 min

3
Wrestling

Aliskerov: 68% takedown accuracy

Expert Breakdown

•Aliskerov: 5.56 sig-str/min at 60% accuracy
•Cannonier: 4.25 sig-str/min at 53.38% accuracy
•Aliskerov: 3.82 takedowns per 15 min
•Aliskerov: 100% takedown defense
•Aliskerov: 68% takedown accuracy
•Cannonier: 45.45% takedown accuracy
•Cannonier: 12:15 avg fight time
•Aliskerov: Sustained pace in 3-round debut
•Cannonier: 3 KO losses in career
•Aliskerov: No KO losses in career
•Cannonier: 21 UFC fights including Marvin Vettori and Gregory Rodrigues
•Aliskerov: 1 UFC fight against Brunno Ferreira
•Cannonier: 2-fight losing streak (vs Duncan, Page)
•Aliskerov: Win over Brunno Ferreira

How This Fight Plays Out

Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Jared Cannonier's TDD vs Ikram Aliskerov's entries.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

Jared Cannonier's takedown defense

no data: no TDD data on Jared Cannonier, if it holds, striker's fight; if not, wrestler's

Projected location

Distance 73%Clinch 7%Ground 20%

Jared Cannonier's path

Defend Ikram Aliskerov's entries; if you sprawl, 4.25 strikes/min and 7 knockdowns/min decide it on the feet.

Ikram Aliskerov's path

Shoot behind 3.82 takedowns/15 at 68% accuracy vs Jared Cannonier's —% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -5.6Power vs chin edge +1.12" reach advantage +0.4Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Jared Cannonier
  • Ikram Aliskerov

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.