Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa Prediction
Betting Odds
Odds not posted yet
FightIQ Verdict
"The FightIQ ratings gap is only 1 point, so this is a toss-up rather than a real edge. Treat it as a coin flip. With extremely limited UFC sample sizes for both fighters, the decision favors Costa who demonstrated a higher activity level and finishing capability in his lone appearance. While Albazi struggled to find his range against Horiguchi, Costa displayed more offensive engagement in his win over Durden, warranting the lean in this narrow stylistic matchup."
The reliance on very thin, single-fight UFC data sets for both athletes means that their stylistic ceiling is largely unproven at this level, making this fight less about established metrics and more about which fighter adapts to the pressure of the big stage faster.
With extremely limited UFC sample sizes for both fighters, the decision favors Costa who demonstrated a higher activity level and finishing capability in his lone appearance. While Albazi struggled to find his range against Horiguchi, Costa displayed more offensive engagement in his win over Durden, warranting the lean in this narrow stylistic matchup.
Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa Prediction and Pick
Alessandro Costa earns a victory by decision against Amir Albazi at the end of 3 rounds. This flyweight clash promises an intense tactical battle between two fighters looking to establish dominance.
Why FightIQ Likes Costa
Costa: 3.01 sig. strikes/min, 37% accuracy
Costa: Submission win vs Cody Durden
Costa: 2.82 takedowns/15 minutes
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Amir Albazi edges it on the feet; Alessandro Costa needs the takedown to flip the script.
Who drives it
Amir Albazi
Hinge stat
Amir Albazi's takedown defense
63%: 63% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it
Projected location
Amir Albazi's path
Defend Alessandro Costa's entries; if you sprawl, 2.47 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.
Alessandro Costa's path
Shoot behind 2.82 takedowns/15 at 22% accuracy vs Amir Albazi's 63% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Amir Albazi
- Alessandro Costa
Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.