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Blog·UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa Prediction

Flyweight· November 21, 2026

The Pick

Winner Alessandro CostaMethod DecisionRound Distance57%Medium

Alessandro Costa earns a victory by decision against Amir Albazi at the end of 3 rounds. This flyweight clash promises an intense tactical battle between two fighters looking to establish dominance.

The Numbers

FightIQ ratings are not on file for both fighters yet, so their records and recent form carry the read. The model win probability for Alessandro Costa stands at 57%, rated Medium confidence.

The Flyweight Matchup Preview

Amir Albazi and Alessandro Costa meet at UFC Fight Night to test their skills in a crowded division. Amir Albazi brings a record of 17-3-0 into the cage with experience from his previous outing. Alessandro Costa enters with a record of 17-5-0 and carries momentum from a successful start in the organization.

Pathways for Amir Albazi

Amir Albazi will look to utilize his striking defense of 59% to keep the action at a comfortable distance. He needs to manage the pace while defending against incoming threats throughout the 3 rounds. Maintaining composure will be vital if he wants to land his own shots and dictate the terms of the engagement.

Alessandro Costa Strategy

Alessandro Costa finds success by aggressively pursuing takedowns to force the action onto the canvas. He lands 2.82 takedowns per 15 minutes which shows his reliance on grappling to control his opponents. If he can secure top position early he will likely dictate the flow of the entire fight.

Deciding Factors of Fight

The fight will be decided by the effectiveness of the takedown game from Alessandro Costa versus the defensive capabilities of Amir Albazi. Alessandro Costa lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.47 for Amir Albazi. Defensive wrestling adjustments will play a massive role in determining who stays standing and who ends up on their back.

Official FightIQ Locked Pick

We are picking Alessandro Costa to secure a decision victory when the final bell rings after 3 rounds. He possesses the necessary volume and grappling pressure to sway the judges in his favor. We trust Alessandro Costa to execute his game plan and leave the cage with his hand raised.

See the full FightIQ breakdown for this fight

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