Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna Prediction
Betting Odds
Odds not posted yet
FightIQ Verdict
"While both fighters have limited UFC experience, Santiago Luna possesses a significant 6-inch reach advantage and superior striking output metrics. Luna’s ability to initiate grappling and his dynamic finishing threat outweigh Aleksandre Topuria's unproven, lower-volume defensive style."
The massive 6-inch reach discrepancy is the primary indicator of where this fight will be contested; Topuria's 2.93 sig strikes/min will struggle to close the distance against a striker who operates at 4.74 sig strikes/min and keeps the fight at the end of his long limbs.
Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna Prediction and Pick
Santiago Luna secures a victory over Aleksandre Topuria by way of a decision at the end of 3 rounds. This bantamweight contest serves as a pivotal moment for both competitors at UFC Fight Night.
Why FightIQ Likes Luna
Santiago Luna lands 4.74 sig strikes/min vs Topuria's 2.93
Luna averages 0.92 sub attempts/15 minutes
Luna averages 2.3 takedowns/15 minutes compared to Topuria's 1.5
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Aleksandre Topuria's elite TDD turns this into a striking fight, Santiago Luna can't get it down.
Who drives it
Aleksandre Topuria
Hinge stat
Aleksandre Topuria's takedown defense
100%: 100% TDD shuts down the wrestling, Aleksandre Topuria forces a striking fight
Projected location
Aleksandre Topuria's path
100% TDD keeps it standing, make it a kickboxing match.
Santiago Luna's path
Shoot behind 2.3 takedowns/15 at 0.71% accuracy vs Aleksandre Topuria's 100% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Aleksandre Topuria
- Santiago Luna
Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.