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Blog·UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna Prediction

Bantamweight· November 21, 2026

The Pick

Winner Santiago LunaMethod DecisionRound Distance57%Medium

Santiago Luna secures a victory over Aleksandre Topuria by way of a decision at the end of 3 rounds. This bantamweight contest serves as a pivotal moment for both competitors at UFC Fight Night.

The Numbers

FightIQ ratings are not on file for both fighters yet, so their records and recent form carry the read. The model win probability for Santiago Luna stands at 57%, rated Medium confidence.

Bantamweight clash of prospects

Aleksandre Topuria enters this contest with a professional record of 7-1-0 and 1 win inside the octagon. He faces off against the 22-year-old Santiago Luna who holds an 8-1-0 record and seeks to stabilize his standing after 2 UFC bouts. Both men fight out of the orthodox stance and look to establish their dominance in the opening minutes of this 3 round battle.

Pathways for the fighters

Aleksandre Topuria relies on a defensive striking game where he lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy. His 100% takedown defense suggests he will prioritize keeping the fight on the feet where he can maximize his 69% strike defense. Santiago Luna adopts a more active approach by landing 4.74 significant strikes per minute while consistently threatening the cage with 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Keys to the contest

The fight will be decided by whether Santiago Luna can penetrate the defensive shell of his opponent. While Aleksandre Topuria has shown he can negate takedowns, the high output of Santiago Luna might overwhelm him throughout the 3 rounds. If Santiago Luna maintains his volume and mixes in his grappling attempts, he can dictate the pace and keep his opponent guessing.

The final fight outlook

We expect a competitive fight that goes the distance as both men prioritize tactical discipline. Santiago Luna possesses the varied offensive tools necessary to pull ahead on the scorecards by the end of 3 rounds. Our locked pick for this matchup is Santiago Luna to win by decision.

See the full FightIQ breakdown for this fight

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