Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita Prediction
Betting Odds
Odds not posted yet
FightIQ Verdict
"Bia Mesquita enters with superior momentum and a clinical submission game that matches up perfectly against Chiasson's recent struggle to hold off grappling exchanges. Mesquita rates 21 points higher than Chiasson and holds the edge in both offensive output and finishing efficiency."
Casuals focus on Chiasson's size advantage, but they miss that Mesquita's 75% takedown accuracy at a 3.57 per 15-minute pace will allow her to drag a taller, less active striker into the deeper waters of her submission traps regardless of the reach discrepancy.
Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita Prediction and Pick
Bia Mesquita maintains her unbeaten streak with a tactical performance against Macy Chiasson at UFC 334. Mesquita secures a win over the distance to solidify her place in the bantamweight division.
Why FightIQ Likes Mesquita
Mesquita: 4.52 sig strikes/min at 57% accuracy
Mesquita: 3.6 sub attempts/15 min
Mesquita: 3.57 takedowns/15 min at 75% accuracy
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Macy Chiasson's TDD vs Bia Mesquita's entries.
Who drives it
Even
Hinge stat
Macy Chiasson's takedown defense
62%: 62% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it
Projected location
Macy Chiasson's path
Defend Bia Mesquita's entries; if you sprawl, 3.21 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.
Bia Mesquita's path
Shoot behind 3.57 takedowns/15 at 75% accuracy vs Macy Chiasson's 62% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Macy Chiasson
- Bia Mesquita
Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.