UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui Prediction

Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
18-2
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
11-3

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho by Decision
Caio Borralho 62% to win · Medium confidence
Caio Borralho
62.4%
Yousri Belgaroui
37.6%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Caio Borralho's superior strength of schedule and defensive wrestling foundation make him the more reliable pick against a surging but less tested Yousri Belgaroui. While Belgaroui possesses dangerous kickboxing volume, Borralho has proven he can navigate five rounds against high-level opposition like Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov."

What Everyone Misses

Belgaroui is a massive physical presence who relies on a 79" reach, but he has faced zero grapplers in the UFC caliber of Borralho who can mix levels to neutralize that length and force him to defend takedowns for 15 minutes.

FightIQ Blog

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui Prediction and Pick

Caio Borralho wins by decision against Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334. The matchup between these two middleweights promises a technical chess match over 3 rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Borralho

1
Grappling

Borralho: 0.4 sub attempts/15 min

2
Wrestling

Borralho: 76% TD defense against Imavov and Cannonier

3
Cardio

Borralho: Proven 5-round stamina vs Cannonier/Imavov

Expert Breakdown

•Belgaroui: 6.1 sig strikes/min at 64% accuracy
•Borralho: 3.47 sig strikes/min at 56% accuracy
•Borralho: 0.4 sub attempts/15 min
•Belgaroui: 0 sub attempts/15 min
•Borralho: 76% TD defense against Imavov and Cannonier
•Belgaroui: 67% TD defense
•Borralho: Proven 5-round stamina vs Cannonier/Imavov
•Belgaroui: Avg fight time 13:02
•Borralho: Zero KO/TKO losses in 20 fights
•Belgaroui: Zero KO/TKO losses in 14 fights
•Borralho: Faced Jared Cannonier, Nassourdine Imavov, and Paul Craig
•Belgaroui: Faced Mansur Abdul-Malik and Azamat Bekoev
•Borralho: 8-1 in UFC
•Belgaroui: 3-0 in UFC, 6-fight win streak

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Yousri Belgaroui has the output edge.

Who drives it

Yousri Belgaroui

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Caio Borralho 3.47/min vs Yousri Belgaroui 6.1/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 99%Clinch 0%Ground 1%

Caio Borralho's path

Out-volume Yousri Belgaroui at distance; power on the counter if Yousri Belgaroui walks in.

Yousri Belgaroui's path

Out-volume Caio Borralho at distance; 0.86 knockdowns/min if Caio Borralho walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.74" reach disadvantage -1.2Southpaw vs orthodox +0.8Opponent momentum edge -0.6Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.3Opponent ring rust edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Caio Borralho
  • Yousri Belgaroui