UFC 333

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction

Petr Yan
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
20-5
-142
Odds-162
Bantamweight
VS
5 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score67
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21-5
+120
Odds+136

Betting Odds

closing line · 23 snapshots
Petr Yan
-144FanDuel
18 ptsopen -162
56.7% impliedEdge +0.3
Merab Dvalishvili
+136BetOnline.ag
14 ptsopen +150
40.8% impliedEdge +2.2

Line movement since opening

Oct 19 17:25Oct 19 17:31Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0138%45%52%64%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Petr Yan
Petr Yan by Decision
Petr Yan 57% to win · Medium confidence
Petr Yan
56.6%
Merab Dvalishvili
43.4%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The FightIQ ratings gap is only 1 point, so this is a toss-up rather than a real edge. Treat it as a coin flip. Petr Yan maintains a higher technical striking output and superior defensive metrics that allow him to stifle Merab Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pressure. While Dvalishvili's takedown volume is immense, Yan's 86% takedown defense and ability to score at range provide a consistent path to winning rounds on the judges' scorecards."

What Everyone Misses

The discrepancy in striking accuracy and defensive efficiency; while Merab Dvalishvili overwhelms opponents with volume, he absorbs significant counter-strikes while transitioning, a weakness Petr Yan exploited in their last outing by landing clean combinations while Merab committed to shots.

Executive Summary

Petr Yan maintains a higher technical striking output and superior defensive metrics that allow him to stifle Merab Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pressure. While Dvalishvili's takedown volume is immense, Yan's 86% takedown defense and ability to score at range provide a consistent path to winning rounds on the judges' scorecards.

FightIQ Blog

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction and Pick

Petr Yan will secure a decision victory against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333. This high stakes bantamweight clash will test the championship mettle of both fighters over 5 hard rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Yan

1
Striking

Petr Yan averages 5.16 sig strikes/min vs Merab Dvalishvili's 4.42

2
Durability

Petr Yan has zero KO losses in 25 career fights

3
Momentum

Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak, including wins over Figueiredo and Yadong

Expert Breakdown

•Petr Yan averages 5.16 sig strikes/min vs Merab Dvalishvili's 4.42
•Yan maintains a 60% strike defense compared to Dvalishvili's 54%
•Merab Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns/15 vs Yan's 1.7
•Petr Yan holds an elite 86% takedown defense rating
•Merab Dvalishvili utilizes high-volume wrestling pressure
•Petr Yan focuses on clinch neutralization and strike-to-takedown defensive transitions
•Both fighters have demonstrated success in 5-round main events
•Merab Dvalishvili maintains high intensity throughout the full duration
•Petr Yan has zero KO losses in 25 career fights
•Merab Dvalishvili has one career KO loss
•Petr Yan has faced Merab Dvalishvili, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Song Yadong
•Merab Dvalishvili has faced Petr Yan, Cory Sandhagen, and Sean O'Malley
•Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak, including wins over Figueiredo and Yadong
•Merab Dvalishvili is coming off a decision loss to Yan

How This Fight Plays Out

Petr Yan's elite TDD turns this into a striking fight, Merab Dvalishvili can't get it down.

Who drives it

Petr Yan

Hinge stat

Petr Yan's takedown defense

86%: 86% TDD shuts down the wrestling, Petr Yan forces a striking fight

Projected location

Distance 75%Clinch 9%Ground 16%

Petr Yan's path

86% TDD keeps it standing, make it a kickboxing match.

Merab Dvalishvili's path

Shoot behind 5.97 takedowns/15 at 35% accuracy vs Petr Yan's 86% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.9Power vs chin edge +0.5Momentum edge +0.4Style matchup edge +2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Petr Yan
  • Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan
Petr Yan
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili