UFC 333

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari Prediction

Iasmin Lucindo
Iasmin Lucindo
18-6
-410
Odds-425
W Strawweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Nicolle Caliari
Nicolle Caliari
9-4
+320
Odds+330

Betting Odds

closing line · 13 snapshots
Iasmin Lucindo
-400BetMGM
55 ptsopen -345
76.6% impliedEdge -1.6
Nicolle Caliari
+340DraftKings
40 ptsopen +300
21.8% impliedEdge +3.2

Line movement since opening

Oct 20 13:01Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0121%41%61%82%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Iasmin Lucindo
Iasmin Lucindo by Decision
Iasmin Lucindo 75% to win · High confidence
Iasmin Lucindo
75.2%
Nicolle Caliari
24.8%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Iasmin Lucindo operates at a significantly higher level of technical proficiency and defensive reliability than Nicolle Caliari. With a more proven resume against names like Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez, Lucindo has the striking output and takedown defense necessary to neutralize Caliari's submission-heavy approach."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans will focus on Caliari's 100% finish rate without accounting for her abysmal 29% takedown accuracy and 52% striking defense, which indicate she will struggle to impose her grappling against a disciplined fighter like Lucindo.

FightIQ Blog

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari Prediction and Pick

Iasmin Lucindo finds her rhythm on the feet to secure a decision victory over Nicolle Caliari at UFC 333. She uses her defensive striking to maintain control and walk away with the win after 3 rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Lucindo

1
Striking

Lucindo: 3.22 sig strikes/min at 45% accuracy

2
Wrestling

Lucindo: 2.28 takedowns/15 minutes, 68% TD defense

3
Cardio

Lucindo: Proven in multiple 3-round decisions

Expert Breakdown

•Lucindo: 3.22 sig strikes/min at 45% accuracy
•Caliari: 2.88 sig strikes/min at 39% accuracy
•Lucindo: 0.15 sub attempts/15 minutes
•Caliari: 1.0 sub attempts/15 minutes
•Lucindo: 2.28 takedowns/15 minutes, 68% TD defense
•Caliari: 3.38 takedowns/15 minutes, 50% TD defense
•Lucindo: Proven in multiple 3-round decisions
•Caliari: Finished fights early or lost late
•Lucindo: 0 KO losses in 6 career defeats
•Caliari: 1 KO loss in 4 career defeats
•Lucindo: 5 UFC fights vs Hill, Lemos, Rodriguez, Viana, Jauregui
•Caliari: 3 UFC fights vs Bannon, Judice, Kareckaite
•Lucindo: Won against Angela Hill; lost to Amanda Lemos
•Caliari: Won against Shauna Bannon; lost to Carli Judice

How This Fight Plays Out

Grappling match, Nicolle Caliari has the takedown volume edge.

Who drives it

Nicolle Caliari

Hinge stat

takedown defense vs takedown volume

Iasmin Lucindo 68% / Nicolle Caliari 50%: who lands on top decides the rounds

Projected location

Distance 42%Clinch 23%Ground 35%

Iasmin Lucindo's path

Out-wrestle Nicolle Caliari, 2.28 TD/15; win the top position exchanges.

Nicolle Caliari's path

Match the wrestling, 3.38 TD/15; deny Iasmin Lucindo's entries and reverse position.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.44" reach advantage +1.2Opponent style edge -1.7Camp unknown 0Opponent ring rust edge -0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Iasmin Lucindo
  • Nicolle Caliari

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.