Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Prediction
Betting Odds
Line movement since opening
FightIQ Verdict
"Grant Dawson possesses a significant edge in finishing ability, particularly with his dangerous submission game, which contrasts sharply with Aliev's decision-heavy record. While Aliev is undefeated and has shown excellent defensive stats, Dawson's experience against high-level opponents like Rafa Garcia and Carlos Diego Ferreira makes him the more proven entity in a high-stakes environment."
Casual fans see Nurullo Aliev's 12-0 record and ignore the 'decision-grind' nature of his success; against a crafty submission specialist like Dawson who attacks from multiple positions, Aliev's reliance on top-control wrestling could lead him directly into a high-percentage submission trap.
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Prediction and Pick
Grant Dawson secures a win over Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333 by going the full distance. His veteran experience helps him navigate a tough three round lightweight contest to earn the judges decision.
Why FightIQ Likes Dawson
Dawson: 3.14 sig strikes/min at 51% accuracy
Dawson: 1.36 sub attempts/15 minutes
Dawson: 3.58 takedowns/15 minutes at 40% accuracy
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Nurullo Aliev's elite TDD turns this into a striking fight, Grant Dawson can't get it down.
Who drives it
Nurullo Aliev
Hinge stat
Nurullo Aliev's takedown defense
80%: 80% TDD shuts down the wrestling, Nurullo Aliev forces a striking fight
Projected location
Grant Dawson's path
Shoot behind 3.58 takedowns/15 at 40% accuracy vs Nurullo Aliev's 80% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.
Nurullo Aliev's path
80% TDD keeps it standing, make it a kickboxing match.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Grant Dawson
- Nurullo Aliev
Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.