UFC 333

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes Prediction

Betting Odds

closing line · 23 snapshots
Azamat Murzakanov
-190BetOnline.ag
15 ptsopen -205
63.1% impliedEdge +8.9
Dominick Reyes
+180FanDuel
5 ptsopen +185
34.4% impliedEdge -6.4

Line movement since opening

Oct 19 17:25Oct 19 17:31Oct 23 18:03Oct 24 13:0133%43%53%69%

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO (R1)
Azamat Murzakanov 72% to win · High confidence
Azamat Murzakanov
72.4%
Dominick Reyes
27.6%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Azamat Murzakanov holds a significant statistical advantage in striking volume and accuracy, coupled with a higher FightIQ rating of 87 compared to Dominick Reyes's 71. Murzakanov’s ability to force finishes, as evidenced by his 88% career finish rate, makes him the clear technical favorite in this matchup."

What Everyone Misses

While Reyes possesses a reach advantage of 5.5 inches, his striking defense of 50% makes him highly vulnerable to Murzakanov’s high-pressure, high-accuracy striking combinations, which negate the distance-management game Reyes prefers.

FightIQ Blog

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes Prediction and Pick

Azamat Murzakanov will defeat Dominick Reyes by way of a round 1 knockout. This clash features two southpaw strikers meeting at light heavyweight during UFC 333.

Why FightIQ Likes Murzakanov

1
Striking

Murzakanov lands 4.93 sig. strikes/min at 57% accuracy

2
Durability

Reyes has 3 KO/TKO losses in his UFC career

3
Experience

Murzakanov holds wins over Paulo Costa and Aleksandar Rakic

Expert Breakdown

•Murzakanov lands 4.93 sig. strikes/min at 57% accuracy
•Reyes lands 3.85 sig. strikes/min at 49% accuracy
•Murzakanov has 0 submission attempts/15 mins
•Reyes has 0.3 submission attempts/15 mins
•Murzakanov possesses 83% takedown defense
•Reyes possesses 82% takedown defense
•Murzakanov has gone to a decision once in his UFC tenure
•Reyes has relied on his gas tank to secure a split decision against Johnny Walker
•Reyes has 3 KO/TKO losses in his UFC career
•Murzakanov has 1 KO/TKO career loss
•Murzakanov holds wins over Paulo Costa and Aleksandar Rakic
•Reyes holds wins over Johnny Walker and Anthony Smith
•Murzakanov is coming off a win against Paulo Costa
•Reyes is coming off a split decision win against Johnny Walker

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Azamat Murzakanov has the output edge.

Who drives it

Azamat Murzakanov

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Azamat Murzakanov 4.93/min vs Dominick Reyes 3.85/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Azamat Murzakanov's path

Out-volume Dominick Reyes at distance; power on the counter if Dominick Reyes walks in.

Dominick Reyes's path

Out-volume Azamat Murzakanov at distance; power on the counter if Azamat Murzakanov walks in.

What moved the number

5" reach disadvantage -1.6Style matchup edge +1.9Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Azamat Murzakanov
  • Dominick Reyes

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.