Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Prediction
Betting Odds
Line movement since opening
FightIQ Verdict
"Movsar Evloev's wrestling volume and relentless pace are tailor-made to stifle Alexander Volkanovski, who has shown recent vulnerability to high-level grappling and power. Evloev's undefeated record and superior wrestling metrics, combined with Volkanovski's age-related decline, point to the Russian controlling the cage to secure a decision."
Casual observers overvalue Volkanovski's past greatness while ignoring that his defensive wrestling metrics are declining; Evloev's ability to chain-wrestle and force opponents to fight from their backs will neutralize Volkanovski's signature in-and-out boxing game.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Prediction and Pick
Movsar Evloev extends his undefeated record by overcoming Alexander Volkanovski through a technical battle that goes the full 5 rounds. This main event at UFC 333 highlights the wrestling dominance of the challenger against the veteran champion.
Why FightIQ Likes Evloev
Evloev 4.78 takedowns/15 vs Volkanovski 1.54
Evloev 52% TD accuracy vs Volkanovski 34%
Volkanovski has 3 KO losses in his last 5 fights
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Alexander Volkanovski's TDD vs Movsar Evloev's entries.
Who drives it
Even
Hinge stat
Alexander Volkanovski's takedown defense
66%: 66% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it
Projected location
Alexander Volkanovski's path
Defend Movsar Evloev's entries; if you sprawl, 6.45 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.
Movsar Evloev's path
Shoot behind 4.78 takedowns/15 at 52% accuracy vs Alexander Volkanovski's 66% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Alexander Volkanovski
- Movsar Evloev