Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke Prediction

Welterweight· November 14, 2026
The Pick
Winner Stephen ThompsonMethod DecisionRound Distance59%Medium

FightIQ rating gap 19 points. Stephen Thompson rates 74 and Charles Radtke rates 55.

Stephen Thompson utilizes his superior striking volume and distance management to secure a decision victory against Charles Radtke at UFC 334. Experience serves as the deciding factor as Thompson controls the flow of the fight over 3 rounds.

The Numbers

Stephen Thompson carries a FightIQ rating of 74 and Charles Radtke sits at 55, a gap of 19 points. The model win probability for Stephen Thompson stands at 59%, rated Medium confidence.

The Welterweight Matchup Overview

Stephen Thompson enters the octagon with 21 UFC appearances under his belt. He looks to leverage his vast experience against the 36-year-old Charles Radtke. This 170 pound contest promises to test the tactical discipline of both men across 3 scheduled rounds.

Tactics for Stephen Thompson

The game plan for Thompson centers on his 4.05 significant strikes per minute. He needs to maintain his signature karate stance to stay outside of the reach of his opponent. By keeping the fight at range and utilizing his 46% striking accuracy he can pick apart his target steadily.

Path to Success for Radtke

Charles Radtke must find a way to close the distance effectively to limit the offensive output of his opponent. He enters this fight with a 5-2 record in the UFC and will look to disrupt the rhythm of a seasoned veteran. Any path to victory requires him to force a messy and cluttered fight that prevents Thompson from finding his timing.

Where the Fight Is Decided

The contest will likely be determined by who dictates the location of the engagement. Thompson possesses a 63% takedown defense which makes it difficult for opponents to force him into unwanted exchanges. Controlling the center of the cage allows the more experienced fighter to dictate the pace and volume of every exchange.

The Final Verdict

We are selecting Stephen Thompson to emerge victorious by way of a decision. His ability to manage the distance over the course of the full 3 rounds should prove insurmountable for Radtke. This matchup represents a clear test of technical striking prowess where the veteran comes out on top.

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