UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. by Decision
Raul Rosas Jr. 92% to win · Low confidence
Raul Rosas Jr.
93.9%
Raoni Barcelos
6.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Raul Rosas Jr. uses his massive advantage in takedown volume and younger physical prime to dictate the clinch and mat exchanges against the aging Raoni Barcelos. While Barcelos is a technical veteran, he struggles to prevent being grounded by high-volume wrestlers, and Rosas Jr.'s 6.1 takedowns per 15 minutes will create the necessary control time to secure rounds."

What Everyone Misses

Casual observers overvalue Raoni Barcelos's striking volume, ignoring that he is 39 years old and has been susceptible to being neutralized in the clinch and on the mat by younger, fresher wrestlers who commit to the grappling grind.

Why FightIQ Likes Jr.

1
Grappling

Rosas Jr.: 0.87 sub-attempts/15

2
Wrestling

Rosas Jr.: 6.1 takedowns per 15 minutes

3
Cardio

Rosas Jr.: 10:45 avg fight time

Expert Breakdown

•Barcelos: 4.65 sig-strikes/min at 55.91% accuracy
•Rosas Jr.: 1.34 sig-strikes/min at 60.96% accuracy
•Rosas Jr.: 0.87 sub-attempts/15
•Barcelos: 0.68 sub-attempts/15
•Rosas Jr.: 6.1 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Barcelos: 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Rosas Jr.: 10:45 avg fight time
•Barcelos: 13:09 avg fight time
•Rosas Jr.: 0 KO losses
•Barcelos: 1 KO loss
•Barcelos: Wins over Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon
•Rosas Jr.: Wins over Rob Font and Vince Morales
•Rosas Jr.: 4-fight win streak
•Barcelos: 4-fight win streak

How This Fight Plays Out

Grappling match, Raul Rosas Jr. has the takedown volume edge.

Who drives it

Raul Rosas Jr.

Hinge stat

takedown defense vs takedown volume

Raul Rosas Jr. 50% / Raoni Barcelos 50%: who lands on top decides the rounds

Projected location

Distance 31%Clinch 25%Ground 44%

Raul Rosas Jr.'s path

Out-wrestle Raoni Barcelos, 6.1 TD/15; win the top position exchanges.

Raoni Barcelos's path

Match the wrestling, 2.51 TD/15; deny Raul Rosas Jr.'s entries and reverse position.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +2.1Style matchup edge +1.7Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +1.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD Accuracy
  • Raul Rosas Jr.
  • Raoni Barcelos

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): TD Defense, Finish Rate.