UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black Prediction
Melissa Amaya
"La Mamba"
8-0
UFC Debut
Women's Strawweight
VS
4 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score62
Tina Black
14-4
UFC Debut
Betting Odds
Odds not posted yet
FightIQ Verdict
FightIQ Lean
Melissa Amaya
Melissa Amaya by Decision
Melissa Amaya 49% to win · Low confidence
Melissa Amaya
48.8%
Tina Black
51.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium
"The numbers point to Melissa Amaya, who rates 10 points higher than Tina Black (54 vs 44) and holds the data-backed edge."
What Everyone Misses
The lack of accessible technical data for Melissa Amaya creates an information vacuum that heavily favors the veteran with a proven 19-fight UFC track record, as Black has faced a wider variety of stylistic profiles.
Expert Breakdown
•Tina Black lands 2.4 sig strikes per minute
•Tina Black maintains 46.81% striking accuracy
•Tina Black has 0 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Tina Black has 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes
•Tina Black shows minimal offensive wrestling volume
•No data available for Melissa Amaya's defensive wrestling
•Tina Black has completed numerous 3-round contests
•Tina Black averages 15 minutes of cage time per fight
•Tina Black has 0 career KO losses
•Tina Black has 4 career decision losses
•Tina Black has 19 total UFC appearances
•Notable opponents faced include Danni McCormack and Karolina Wojcik
•Tina Black is on a 2-fight win streak
•Recent wins include Yasmin Castanho and Yulia Ostroverkhova
How This Fight Plays Out
Insufficient data: one or both fighters have no UFC striking or grappling stats, so the style interaction and likely location of the fight can't be projected yet. These populate once the weekly sync hydrates their numbers.