UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira Prediction

Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
15-3
Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score61
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira
"Xicao"
9-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev by Decision
Shamil Gaziev 57% to win · Medium confidence
Shamil Gaziev
56.6%
Tallison Teixeira
43.4%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"While Gaziev is currently on a slide, his experience against higher-tier competition gives him a slight edge over the very limited and inconsistent Teixeira. Gaziev's ability to navigate deeper waters and his physical strength in the clinch provide the clearest path to neutralizing the younger, inexperienced prospect."

What Everyone Misses

The massive discrepancy in defensive stability; Teixeira has shown zero takedown defense in his limited UFC appearances, creating a glaring vulnerability that Gaziev's 83% TD defense rating and wrestling-based clinch pressure can exploit to control the geography of the fight.

FightIQ Blog

Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira Prediction and Pick

Shamil Gaziev will defeat Tallison Teixeira by decision at UFC Fight Night. This heavyweight clash pits an experienced veteran against a hungry younger challenger over 3 rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Gaziev

1
Grappling

Gaziev: 0.26 sub attempts/15 min

2
Wrestling

Gaziev: 83% TD defense

3
Cardio

Gaziev: Averaged 8:07 in high-level bouts

Expert Breakdown

•Gaziev: 2.94 sig strikes/min at 46% accuracy
•Teixeira: 4.85 sig strikes/min at 62% accuracy
•Gaziev: 0.26 sub attempts/15 min
•Teixeira: 0.00 sub attempts/15 min
•Gaziev: 83% TD defense
•Teixeira: 0% TD defense
•Gaziev: Averaged 8:07 in high-level bouts
•Teixeira: No multi-round data beyond 15 minutes
•Gaziev: 3 KO/TKO losses in 6 UFC fights
•Teixeira: 1 KO/TKO loss in 2 UFC fights
•Gaziev: 6 UFC fights (vs Rozenstruik, Petersen, Mayes)
•Teixeira: 2 UFC fights (vs Tuivasa, Lewis)
•Gaziev: 2-fight losing streak (vs Pericic, Cortes Acosta)
•Teixeira: 1-1 in last two (W vs Tuivasa, L vs Lewis)

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Tallison Teixeira has the output edge.

Who drives it

Tallison Teixeira

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Shamil Gaziev 2.94/min vs Tallison Teixeira 4.85/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 91%Clinch 1%Ground 8%

Shamil Gaziev's path

Out-volume Tallison Teixeira at distance; 0.53 knockdowns/min if Tallison Teixeira walks in.

Tallison Teixeira's path

Out-volume Shamil Gaziev at distance; power on the counter if Shamil Gaziev walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +5.6Power vs chin edge +14" reach disadvantage -1.3Opponent style edge -1.3Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Shamil Gaziev
  • Tallison Teixeira

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.