Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction
Betting Odds
Odds not posted yet
FightIQ Verdict
"The FightIQ ratings gap is only 2 points, so this is a toss-up rather than a real edge. Treat it as a coin flip. Asu Almabayev maintains a significant advantage in grappling volume and recent momentum compared to Horiguchi's inactivity in the modern UFC environment. While data for both is limited, Almabayev's ability to hunt submissions and dictate the pace on the ground makes him the more reliable side against an aging opponent."
Casual fans see Kyoji Horiguchi's name and assume his high-level pedigree from other promotions carries over, but his lack of recent success against high-level UFC opposition combined with his current two-fight slide suggests he is past his physical prime.
Asu Almabayev maintains a significant advantage in grappling volume and recent momentum compared to Horiguchi's inactivity in the modern UFC environment. While data for both is limited, Almabayev's ability to hunt submissions and dictate the pace on the ground makes him the more reliable side against an aging opponent.
Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction and Pick
Asu Almabayev will take a calculated decision win over Kyoji Horiguchi to secure his position in the flyweight rankings. This technical battle will test the takedown game of the younger fighter against the veteran experience of his opponent.
Why FightIQ Likes Almabayev
Almabayev attempts 1.44 submissions per 15 minutes
Almabayev averages 4.74 takedowns per 15 minutes
Almabayev is 1-1 in his last two bouts
Expert Breakdown
How This Fight Plays Out
Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Kyoji Horiguchi's TDD vs Asu Almabayev's entries.
Who drives it
Even
Hinge stat
Kyoji Horiguchi's takedown defense
61%: 61% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it
Projected location
Asu Almabayev's path
Shoot behind 4.74 takedowns/15 at 45.8% accuracy vs Kyoji Horiguchi's 61% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.
Kyoji Horiguchi's path
Defend Asu Almabayev's entries; if you sprawl, 3.64 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.
What moved the number
Style Radar
measured edges, side by side- Asu Almabayev
- Kyoji Horiguchi
Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.