UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos Prediction

Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-5
Featherweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score61
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos
"El Chino"
18-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling by Decision
Aljamain Sterling 70% to win · High confidence
Aljamain Sterling
89.3%
Kevin Vallejos
10.7%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"At least one fighter has no UFC per-minute stats yet, so this pick leans on their regional record (finish rate, how they win, finish rounds, streak and activity) rather than UFC stats. Confidence is capped accordingly. Aljamain Sterling possesses the massive advantage of proven UFC-level experience and data, whereas Kevin Vallejos is an unproven newcomer with no UFC stats to analyze. Due to the lack of available data for Vallejos, the confidence in this pick is low, but standard handicapping favors the proven entity over the unknown prospect."

What Everyone Misses

The transition gap. Casual fans often overvalue regional records (18-1) without accounting for the massive surge in difficulty when stepping into the UFC, where tactical discipline and defensive accountability drastically shift compared to regional circuits.

Executive Summary

Aljamain Sterling possesses the massive advantage of proven UFC-level experience and data, whereas Kevin Vallejos is an unproven newcomer with no UFC stats to analyze. Due to the lack of available data for Vallejos, the confidence in this pick is low, but standard handicapping favors the proven entity over the unknown prospect.

FightIQ Blog

Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos Prediction and Pick

Aljamain Sterling uses his vast experience to control the pace against the newcomer Kevin Vallejos. The veteran secures a victory by going the full distance to earn a decision win.

Why FightIQ Likes Sterling

1
Striking

Sterling: 4.26 sig strikes/min at 52.59% accuracy

2
Grappling

Sterling: 0.64 sub attempts/15 minutes

3
Wrestling

Sterling: 2.54 takedowns/15 minutes with 32.18% accuracy

Expert Breakdown

•Sterling: 4.26 sig strikes/min at 52.59% accuracy
•Vallejos: No UFC striking data available
•Sterling: 0.64 sub attempts/15 minutes
•Vallejos: No UFC grappling data available
•Sterling: 2.54 takedowns/15 minutes with 32.18% accuracy
•Vallejos: No UFC wrestling data available
•Sterling: Proven ability to fight full 5-round durations
•Vallejos: No fight duration data available
•Sterling: 0% professional finish loss rate
•Vallejos: 0% professional finish loss rate
•Sterling: Win against Youssef Zalal
•Vallejos: No relevant UFC-level opponent history
•Sterling: Coming off a decision win over Youssef Zalal
•Vallejos: No current data or record of recent bouts

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Kevin Vallejos has the output edge.

Who drives it

Kevin Vallejos

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Aljamain Sterling 4.26/min vs Kevin Vallejos 6.12/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 94%Clinch 0%Ground 5%

Aljamain Sterling's path

Out-volume Kevin Vallejos at distance; power on the counter if Kevin Vallejos walks in.

Kevin Vallejos's path

Out-volume Aljamain Sterling at distance; power on the counter if Aljamain Sterling walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -23" reach advantage +0.9Opponent style edge -1.9Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Aljamain Sterling
  • Kevin Vallejos

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos