UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya Prediction

Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
11-5
Flyweight bout
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score75
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya
11-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya by Submission (R2)
Rei Tsuruya 99% to win · High confidence
Kevin Borjas
1.5%
Rei Tsuruya
98.5%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Rei Tsuruya holds a significant stylistic advantage as a high-volume grappler against a striker in Kevin Borjas who struggles to maintain defensive integrity. Tsuruya's ability to initiate clinch scenarios and hunt for submissions, contrasted with Borjas's inability to generate offensive grappling, makes Tsuruya the clear favorite."

What Everyone Misses

The discrepancy in Tsuruya's takedown accuracy (6%) is a red herring; his actual threat comes from his opportunistic transition game and relentless pace in the clinch rather than singular, explosive shooting that Borjas can easily stuff.

Why FightIQ Likes Tsuruya

1
Grappling

Tsuruya averages 2.01 submission attempts per 15 minutes

2
Wrestling

Tsuruya averages 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes

3
Cardio

Tsuruya maintains consistent intensity over 9:56 average fight time

Expert Breakdown

•Borjas lands 3.87 sig strikes/min at 43% accuracy
•Tsuruya lands 2.40 sig strikes/min at 54% accuracy
•Tsuruya averages 2.01 submission attempts per 15 minutes
•Borjas has 0.00 average submission attempts
•Tsuruya averages 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Borjas maintains 73% takedown defense but has zero offensive wrestling
•Tsuruya maintains consistent intensity over 9:56 average fight time
•Borjas logs 12:59 average fight time with diminishing returns
•Borjas has never been finished by KO or submission
•Tsuruya has never been finished in his 12-fight career
•Borjas has UFC bouts against Joshua Van, Alessandro Costa, and Sumudaerji
•Tsuruya has UFC bouts against Carlos Hernandez, Joshua Van, and Luis Gurule
•Borjas is on a neutral trend having traded wins and losses with Andre Lima and Imanol Rodriguez
•Tsuruya enters following a win over Luis Gurule after a loss to Joshua Van

How This Fight Plays Out

Rei Tsuruya pulls it down and subs.

Who drives it

Rei Tsuruya

Hinge stat

Kevin Borjas's takedown defense

73%: if Kevin Borjas stays upright it's a striking fight

Projected location

Distance 54%Clinch 5%Ground 41%

Kevin Borjas's path

Keep it at distance, 3.87 strikes/min; deny the clinch.

Rei Tsuruya's path

Pull guard or chain takedowns; 2.01 sub attempts/15 on the mat.

What moved the number

Power vs chin edge +0.8Opponent style edge -2.1Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Kevin Borjas
  • Rei Tsuruya

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.