UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan Prediction

Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes
"Dee"
12-3
Women's strawweight bout
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score71
Yan Xiaonan
Yan Xiaonan
19-5

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes by Decision
Denise Gomes 91% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Denise Gomes
91.3%
Yan Xiaonan
8.7%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 3 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Denise Gomes possesses the superior physical trajectory and striking volume to outpace the aging Yan Xiaonan. While Yan has faced higher-ranked competition, her recent struggles with grappling and durability against fighters like Virna Jandiroba suggest she is on the decline at 37."

What Everyone Misses

The significant age gap and defensive decline; Yan Xiaonan is 37 and has struggled to maintain her striking output when pressured by aggressive grapplers, whereas Gomes is hitting her prime physical window.

Executive Summary

Denise Gomes possesses the superior physical trajectory and striking volume to outpace the aging Yan Xiaonan. While Yan has faced higher-ranked competition, her recent struggles with grappling and durability against fighters like Virna Jandiroba suggest she is on the decline at 37.

Why FightIQ Likes Gomes

1
Striking

Gomes averages 4.43 sig. strikes/min at 49% accuracy

2
Grappling

Gomes averages 0.72 sub attempts/15

3
Wrestling

Gomes TD defense sits at 67% compared to Yan's 65%

Expert Breakdown

•Gomes averages 4.43 sig. strikes/min at 49% accuracy
•Yan maintains 4.69 sig. strikes/min but with lower 45% accuracy
•Gomes has shown significantly higher power with 0.43 knockdowns per 15
•Gomes averages 0.72 sub attempts/15
•Yan has zero sub attempts/15 in her recorded metrics
•Both fighters show limited offensive submission grappling
•Gomes TD defense sits at 67% compared to Yan's 65%
•Yan averages 0.84 takedowns/15 compared to Gomes's 1.45
•Neither fighter is a wrestling specialist
•Yan averages 15:01 fight time, indicating high-round endurance
•Gomes averages 11:30, maintaining high intensity
•Yan has been pushed to the limit in 3-round battles
•Gomes has zero knockout losses in 15 professional fights
•Yan has maintained a durable chin through losses to Zhang Weili and Virna Jandiroba
•Age 37 vs 26 is a significant factor in recovery
•Yan has fought Zhang Weili, Jessica Andrade, and Mackenzie Dern
•Gomes has fought Tecia Pennington, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Angela Hill
•Yan possesses a deeper resume of high-ranked veterans
•Yan is coming off a loss to Virna Jandiroba
•Gomes is coming off a win against Tecia Pennington
•Yan has dropped 3 of her last 5 contests

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Yan Xiaonan has the output edge.

Who drives it

Yan Xiaonan

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Denise Gomes 4.43/min vs Yan Xiaonan 4.69/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 96%Clinch 0%Ground 4%

Denise Gomes's path

Out-volume Yan Xiaonan at distance; 0.43 knockdowns/min if Yan Xiaonan walks in.

Yan Xiaonan's path

Out-volume Denise Gomes at distance; 0.15 knockdowns/min if Denise Gomes walks in.

What moved the number

Momentum edge +0.4Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +1.8Ring rust edge +0.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Denise Gomes
  • Yan Xiaonan

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.