UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos Prediction

Yana Santos
Yana Santos
"Foxy"
17-8
+215
Odds+195
W Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score56
Luana Santos
Luana Santos
11-2
-265
Odds-238

Betting Odds

opening line · 1 snapshot
Yana Santos
+174BetOnline.ag
flatopen +174
35.4% implied
Luana Santos
-200BetOnline.ag
flatopen -200
64.6% implied

Line movement since opening

Movement chart appears after a second odds pull with a changed line.

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Luana Santos
Luana Santos by Decision
Luana Santos 68.9% to win · HIGH confidence
Yana Santos
31.1%
Luana Santos
68.9%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
HIGH
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Luana Santos possesses a significantly higher ceiling and technical versatility, evidenced by her 7-1 UFC record and dominant takedown defense. While Yana Santos has found stability on a 3-fight win streak, she lacks the finishing upside and statistical defensive wall that Luana brings to the cage."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans overlook Luana Santos's 86% takedown defense, which completely nullifies the primary path of most opponents who try to grind her out. It forces the fight into striking exchanges where Luana maintains better defensive metrics (64%) than Yana (52%).

FightIQ Blog

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos Prediction and Pick

Luana Santos will use her wrestling and youth to secure a victory against Yana Santos. She is expected to control the pace over 3 rounds to earn the judges nod.

Why FightIQ Likes Santos

1
Striking

Yana Santos: 4.41 sig-str/min, 52% defense

2
Grappling

Luana Santos: 0.97 sub-attempts/15

3
Wrestling

Luana Santos: 2.14 TD/15, 86% TD defense

Expert Breakdown

•Yana Santos: 4.41 sig-str/min, 52% defense
•Luana Santos: 2.53 sig-str/min, 64% defense
•Luana Santos: 0.97 sub-attempts/15
•Yana Santos: 0.1 sub-attempts/15
•Luana Santos: 2.14 TD/15, 86% TD defense
•Yana Santos: 0.78 TD/15, 51% TD defense
•Luana Santos: 11:01 average fight time
•Both fighters primarily go to distance
•Yana Santos: 2 career KO losses
•Luana Santos: 2 career KO losses
•Yana Santos: 8 UFC bouts
•Luana Santos: 8 UFC bouts
•Luana Santos: 4-fight win streak
•Yana Santos: 3-fight win streak

How This Fight Plays Out

Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Yana Santos's TDD vs Luana Santos's entries.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

Yana Santos's takedown defense

51%: 51% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it

Projected location

Distance 74%Clinch 5%Ground 21%

Yana Santos's path

Defend Luana Santos's entries; if you sprawl, 4.41 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet. But the TDD is a real liability, one lazy sprawl and you're on your back for a round.

Luana Santos's path

Shoot behind 2.14 takedowns/15 at 53% accuracy vs Yana Santos's 51% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -3.1Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.8Opponent ring rust edge -0.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Yana Santos
  • Luana Santos

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.