UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden Prediction

Betting Odds

opening line · 2 snapshots
Ode' Osbourne
-125DraftKings
flatopen -125
53.2% impliedEdge -10.2
Cody Durden
+106BetOnline.ag
flatopen +106
46.5% impliedEdge +10.5

Line movement since opening

Movement chart appears after a second odds pull with a changed line.

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Cody Durden
Cody Durden by Decision
Cody Durden 57% to win · Medium confidence
Ode' Osbourne
43.2%
Cody Durden
56.8%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"Both fighters have extremely limited UFC data and no established finishing track record, making this a speculative matchup. Cody Durden holds a statistical edge in wrestling output, which is the most reliable path to dictating proceedings in a low-sample-size, unproven flyweight fight."

What Everyone Misses

The massive reach discrepancy; Ode' Osbourne possesses a significant 6-inch reach advantage, yet his 41% striking accuracy and low output suggests he lacks the technical refinement to effectively weaponize that distance against a wrestler.

FightIQ Blog

Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden Prediction and Pick

Cody Durden is the pick to defeat Ode' Osbourne in this flyweight showdown. He will use his superior grappling volume to secure a decision victory over the distance.

Why FightIQ Likes Durden

1
Striking

Osbourne: 2.94 sig/min at 41% accuracy

2
Grappling

Osbourne: 0.4 sub attempts/15

3
Wrestling

Osbourne: 0.94 takedowns/15

Expert Breakdown

•Osbourne: 2.94 sig/min at 41% accuracy
•Durden: 3.27 sig/min at 43% accuracy
•Osbourne: 0.4 sub attempts/15
•Durden: 0.62 sub attempts/15
•Osbourne: 0.94 takedowns/15
•Durden: 3.82 takedowns/15
•No UFC-specific duration data
•Both fighters are 34-35 years old
•Osbourne: 0 career knockdowns absorbed
•Durden: 0 career knockdowns absorbed
•Osbourne: Faced Ronaldo Rodriguez
•Durden: Faced Alessandro Costa
•Osbourne: Coming off a loss to Ronaldo Rodriguez
•Durden: Coming off a loss to Alessandro Costa

How This Fight Plays Out

Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Ode' Osbourne's TDD vs Cody Durden's entries.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

Ode' Osbourne's takedown defense

49%: 49% TDD is porous, Cody Durden will plant Ode' Osbourne on the mat

Projected location

Distance 70%Clinch 8%Ground 23%

Ode' Osbourne's path

Defend Cody Durden's entries; if you sprawl, 2.94 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet. But the TDD is a real liability, one lazy sprawl and you're on your back for a round.

Cody Durden's path

Shoot behind 3.82 takedowns/15 at 10% accuracy vs Ode' Osbourne's 49% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -0.86" reach advantage +1.8Camp unknown 0Opponent ring rust edge -0.4

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Ode' Osbourne
  • Cody Durden

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.