UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez

Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz Prediction

Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
11-0
Light Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz
29-11-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO (R1)
Navajo Stirling 72% to win · High confidence
Navajo Stirling
72%
Jan Blachowicz
28%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Navajo Stirling possesses superior striking volume and the physical prime required to outpace a 43-year-old Jan Blachowicz. Stirling's ability to maintain a high pace will overwhelm the veteran, who has shown significant signs of decline in his recent outings against Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans assume Blachowicz's legendary status and 'Polish Power' remain, ignoring that at 43, his defensive metrics (52% sig-strike defense) and durability have cratered, leaving him susceptible to the higher-volume, younger athletes at 205 lbs.

Why FightIQ Likes Stirling

1
Striking

Stirling: 6.24 sig-strikes/min, 56.68% accuracy

2
Cardio

Stirling: 11:38 avg fight time

3
Durability

Stirling: 0 KO losses

Expert Breakdown

•Stirling: 6.24 sig-strikes/min, 56.68% accuracy
•Blachowicz: 3.55 sig-strikes/min, 57.63% accuracy
•Stirling: 0 sub-attempts/15
•Blachowicz: 0.36 sub-attempts/15
•Stirling: 0.86 takedowns/15, 26.67% TD accuracy
•Blachowicz: 0.98 takedowns/15, 48.72% TD accuracy
•Stirling: 11:38 avg fight time
•Blachowicz: 13:16 avg fight time
•Stirling: 0 KO losses
•Blachowicz: 2 KO losses
•Stirling: Unbeaten (10-0), wins over Ion Cutelaba and Ivan Erslan
•Blachowicz: Former champion, wins over Aleksandar Rakic and Dominick Reyes
•Stirling: Undefeated, coming off a win over Ion Cutelaba
•Blachowicz: 0-3-2 in last five, winless since 2022

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Navajo Stirling has the output edge.

Who drives it

Navajo Stirling

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Navajo Stirling 6.24/min vs Jan Blachowicz 3.55/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 96%Clinch 0%Ground 4%

Navajo Stirling's path

Out-volume Jan Blachowicz at distance; 0.64 knockdowns/min if Jan Blachowicz walks in.

Jan Blachowicz's path

Out-volume Navajo Stirling at distance; 0.36 knockdowns/min if Navajo Stirling walks in.

What moved the number

Power vs chin edge +0.5Momentum edge +0.5Style matchup edge +2Age/decline edge +1.8Ring rust edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Navajo Stirling
  • Jan Blachowicz

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.