UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez

Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki Prediction

Kyle Prepolec
Kyle Prepolec
"Killshot"
18-10
Lightweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Mateusz Rębecki
Mateusz Rębecki
20-5

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mateusz Rębecki
Mateusz Rębecki by KO/TKO (R1)
Mateusz Rębecki 85% to win · High confidence
Kyle Prepolec
15%
Mateusz Rębecki
85%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Mateusz Rębecki holds a significant statistical advantage in every measurable category, including striking output and wrestling engagement. Kyle Prepolec is winless in the UFC, demonstrating significant defensive deficiencies that Rębecki, a finisher at American Top Team, will exploit to end the fight before the scorecards."

What Everyone Misses

Prepolec’s inability to defend takedowns is not just a statistical hole, but a terminal flaw when facing a high-pressure grappler like Rębecki who actively hunts for submissions during transitions.

Why FightIQ Likes Rębecki

1
Striking

Rębecki averages 4.79 sig. strikes/min compared to Prepolec's 3.25

2
Grappling

Rębecki averages 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes

3
Wrestling

Rębecki possesses 53% takedown defense

Expert Breakdown

•Rębecki averages 4.79 sig. strikes/min compared to Prepolec's 3.25
•Rębecki maintains a 52.39% accuracy versus Prepolec’s 34.82%
•Rębecki averages 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Prepolec has no record of offensive takedowns in the UFC
•Rębecki possesses 53% takedown defense
•Prepolec allows opponents to dictate the ground battle with only 45% takedown defense
•Rębecki has an average fight time of 11:29
•Prepolec has an average fight time of 12:13
•Prepolec is 36 years old with significant mileage in UFC losses
•Rębecki, age 33, has been finished fewer times relative to his total fights
•Prepolec is 0-6 in the UFC
•Rębecki has secured victories over Myktybek Orolbai and others
•Prepolec is winless in his recent UFC appearances
•Rębecki recently secured a win against Myktybek Orolbai

How This Fight Plays Out

Mateusz Rębecki imposes the takedown and grinds Kyle Prepolec out on the mat.

Who drives it

Mateusz Rębecki

Hinge stat

Kyle Prepolec's takedown defense

45%: 45% TDD is porous, Mateusz Rębecki will plant Kyle Prepolec on the mat

Projected location

Distance 58%Clinch 10%Ground 33%

Kyle Prepolec's path

Defend Mateusz Rębecki's entries; if you sprawl, 3.25 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet. But the TDD is a real liability, one lazy sprawl and you're on your back for a round.

Mateusz Rębecki's path

Shoot behind 3.05 takedowns/15 at 48.84% accuracy vs Kyle Prepolec's 45% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -2.44" reach advantage +1.2Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.9Opponent ring rust edge -0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Kyle Prepolec
  • Mateusz Rębecki

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Kyle Prepolec
Kyle Prepolec
Mateusz Rębecki
Mateusz Rębecki