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Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja Prediction

Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad
"The Unleashed"
15-4
Featherweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score73
Dennis Buzukja
Dennis Buzukja
"The Great"
12-6

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad by KO/TKO (R1)
Bogdan Grad 45% to win · Medium confidence
Bogdan Grad
45%
Dennis Buzukja
55%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"This is a low-level featherweight matchup between two fighters with identical 1-4 UFC records. Dennis Buzukja gets a slight edge due to marginally higher striking output and the fact that he possesses actual knockdown capability, whereas Bogdan Grad has recorded zero knockdowns in his tenure."

What Everyone Misses

Both fighters have essentially identical statistical profiles in the UFC, but Buzukja has faced a significantly higher grade of opposition like Sean Woodson and Jamall Emmers, whereas Grad's losses came against less proven names like Luke Riley.

Executive Summary

This is a low-level featherweight matchup between two fighters with identical 1-4 UFC records. Dennis Buzukja gets a slight edge due to marginally higher striking output and the fact that he possesses actual knockdown capability, whereas Bogdan Grad has recorded zero knockdowns in his tenure.

Why FightIQ Likes Buzukja

1
Striking

Buzukja lands 4.21 sig/str/min vs Grad's 4.06

2
Grappling

Buzukja averages 0.21 sub attempts per 15 mins

3
Experience

Buzukja has faced Sean Woodson, Jamall Emmers, and Francis Marshall

Expert Breakdown

•Buzukja lands 4.21 sig/str/min vs Grad's 4.06
•Buzukja has 0.41 knockdowns per 15 mins vs Grad's 0.0
•Buzukja averages 0.21 sub attempts per 15 mins
•Grad has 0 sub attempts per 15 mins
•Grad averages 4.22 takedowns per 15 mins
•Buzukja averages 0.62 takedowns per 15 mins
•Buzukja avg fight time 10:22
•Grad avg fight time 9:15
•Buzukja has 2 KO losses in 18 fights
•Grad has 2 KO losses in 19 fights
•Buzukja has faced Sean Woodson, Jamall Emmers, and Francis Marshall
•Grad has faced Luke Riley, Muhammad Naimov, and Lucas Alexander
•Buzukja is 1-4 in his last 5 with a win over Connor Matthews
•Grad is 1-4 in his last 5 with a win over Lucas Alexander

How This Fight Plays Out

Dennis Buzukja edges it on the feet; Bogdan Grad needs the takedown to flip the script.

Who drives it

Dennis Buzukja

Hinge stat

Dennis Buzukja's takedown defense

75%: 75% TDD is high; Bogdan Grad can still grind but the edge tilts to Dennis Buzukja

Projected location

Distance 82%Clinch 7%Ground 10%

Bogdan Grad's path

Shoot behind 4.22 takedowns/15 at 40.63% accuracy vs Dennis Buzukja's 75% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.

Dennis Buzukja's path

Defend Bogdan Grad's entries; if you sprawl, 4.21 strikes/min and 0.41 knockdowns/min decide it on the feet.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.8Opponent style edge -2.4Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Bogdan Grad
  • Dennis Buzukja

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.