UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto Prediction

Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-11
Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score73
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto
12-0

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (R2)
Mario Pinto 99% to win · High confidence
Ryan Spann
1%
Mario Pinto
99%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Mario Pinto is the more composed and technically sound prospect with a perfect 100% takedown defense rate that should neutralize Spann’s opportunistic submission game. While Spann possesses dangerous finishing power, his aging durability and inconsistent defensive metrics make him vulnerable to Pinto's superior striking accuracy and tactical discipline."

What Everyone Misses

The critical disparity in defensive efficiency: while Spann relies on high-risk scrambles to survive, Pinto’s 100% takedown defense and 58% striking defense suggest he fights with a structure that doesn't invite the chaotic exchanges where Spann traditionally finds his submissions.

Why FightIQ Likes Pinto

1
Striking

Pinto holds a 70% striking accuracy compared to Spann's 40%.

2
Grappling

Spann maintains a high submission threat with 1.66 attempts/15 minutes.

3
Wrestling

Pinto averages 2.38 takedowns/15 compared to Spann's 1.21.

Expert Breakdown

•Pinto holds a 70% striking accuracy compared to Spann's 40%.
•Pinto maintains a tighter 58% defensive rating against Spann's 43%.
•Spann maintains a high submission threat with 1.66 attempts/15 minutes.
•Pinto has demonstrated a 100% takedown defense rate in his UFC tenure.
•Pinto averages 2.38 takedowns/15 compared to Spann's 1.21.
•Spann possesses a 59% takedown defense, indicating he is hittable on the entry.
•Pinto has successfully gone the distance, including a 3-round win against Felipe Franco.
•Spann frequently finishes or is finished early, with a 5:31 average fight time.
•Spann has suffered multiple recent KO/TKO losses to Waldo Cortes Acosta and Bogdan Guskov.
•Pinto remains undefeated at 12-0 with no professional losses.
•Spann has deep UFC experience against Anthony Smith, Ovince Saint Preux, and Lukasz Brzeski.
•Pinto has faced Jhonata Diniz and Austen Lane in his recent campaign.
•Pinto is currently riding a streak including wins over Jhonata Diniz and Austen Lane.
•Spann has alternated wins and losses against Lukasz Brzeski, Waldo Cortes Acosta, and Ovince Saint Preux.

How This Fight Plays Out

Mario Pinto stays up and strikes.

Who drives it

Mario Pinto

Hinge stat

Mario Pinto's takedown defense

100%: if Mario Pinto stays upright it's a striking fight; Ryan Spann needs the mat

Projected location

Distance 73%Clinch 6%Ground 21%

Ryan Spann's path

Pull guard or chain into takedowns; 1.66 sub attempts/15 once it hits the floor.

Mario Pinto's path

Keep it at distance, 2.85 strikes/min; deny the clinch entries.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -2.1Opponent style edge -1.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Ryan Spann
  • Mario Pinto

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto