UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Nursulton Ruziboev vs Michael Page Prediction

Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
37-9-2
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score68
Michael Page
Michael Page
"Venom"
25-3

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev by Submission (R3)
Nursulton Ruziboev 1% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Nursulton Ruziboev
1%
Michael Page
99%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 1 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Tiebreaker leaned to Nursulton Ruziboev on finishing rates + stylistic matchup. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Michael Page’s movement-based striking and superior 70% takedown defense provide the perfect blueprint to neutralize Ruziboev’s aggression. While Ruziboev has finishing upside, Page’s ability to manage range against high-output threats like Kevin Holland and Ian Machado Garry makes him the more reliable tactical choice."

What Everyone Misses

Michael Page's 70% takedown defense is the silent anchor of his game; despite the narrative that he is a pure striker, his ability to keep fights standing forces opponents to engage in a technical distance battle they cannot win.

Executive Summary

Michael Page’s movement-based striking and superior 70% takedown defense provide the perfect blueprint to neutralize Ruziboev’s aggression. While Ruziboev has finishing upside, Page’s ability to manage range against high-output threats like Kevin Holland and Ian Machado Garry makes him the more reliable tactical choice.

Why FightIQ Likes Page

1
Striking

Michael Page: 58% accuracy, 2.28 sig/min

2
Wrestling

Page: 70% TD defense

3
Cardio

Page: Consistent 3-round output against Holland and Cannonier

Expert Breakdown

•Michael Page: 58% accuracy, 2.28 sig/min
•Nursulton Ruziboev: 46% accuracy, 2.38 sig/min
•Ruziboev: 21 career submission wins
•Page: 0 sub attempts/15 minutes
•Page: 70% TD defense
•Ruziboev: 20% TD accuracy
•Page: Consistent 3-round output against Holland and Cannonier
•Ruziboev: Avg fight time 7:21
•Ruziboev: 0 losses by KO/TKO
•Page: 0 losses by KO/TKO
•Page: Wins over Kevin Holland, Jared Cannonier, Sam Patterson
•Ruziboev: Wins over Andrey Pulyaev, Dustin Stoltzfus; Loss to Joaquin Buckley
•Page: Recent win over Shara Magomedov
•Ruziboev: Recent win over Andrey Pulyaev

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Nursulton Ruziboev has the output edge.

Who drives it

Nursulton Ruziboev

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Nursulton Ruziboev 2.38/min vs Michael Page 2.28/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 94%Clinch 0%Ground 6%

Nursulton Ruziboev's path

Out-volume Michael Page at distance; 1.02 knockdowns/min if Michael Page walks in.

Michael Page's path

Out-volume Nursulton Ruziboev at distance; 0.19 knockdowns/min if Nursulton Ruziboev walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.53" reach disadvantage -0.9Style matchup edge +2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +1.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Nursulton Ruziboev
  • Michael Page

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.