UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar Sy Prediction

Modestas Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-7
Light Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score63
Oumar Sy
Oumar Sy
12-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Modestas Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO (R1)
Modestas Bukauskas 99% to win · High confidence
Modestas Bukauskas
99%
Oumar Sy
1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Modestas Bukauskas holds a significant advantage in takedown defense and disciplined, high-level striking engagement against Oumar Sy. While Sy shows athletic promise, Bukauskas's superior defensive metrics and ability to navigate UFC-level rounds make him the more reliable tactical pick."

What Everyone Misses

Bukauskas's 82% takedown defense is the ultimate equalizer; he specifically neutralizes grapplers who rely on forced takedowns rather than opportunistic transitions, forcing them to survive in his preferred striking range.

Why FightIQ Likes Bukauskas

1
Wrestling

Bukauskas 82% takedown defense

2
Cardio

Bukauskas avg fight time 10:04

3
Experience

Bukauskas competed against Nikita Krylov, Paul Craig, and Ion Cutelaba

Expert Breakdown

•Bukauskas 3.14 sig-strikes/min at 43% accuracy
•Sy 3.41 sig-strikes/min at 48% accuracy
•Bukauskas 0.11 sub attempts/15
•Sy 0.35 sub attempts/15
•Bukauskas 82% takedown defense
•Sy 2.45 takedowns/15 with 10% accuracy
•Bukauskas avg fight time 10:04
•Sy avg fight time 8:34
•Bukauskas 7 losses, 0 by KO
•Sy 2 losses, 0 by KO
•Bukauskas competed against Nikita Krylov, Paul Craig, and Ion Cutelaba
•Sy competed against Alonzo Menifield, Da Woon Jung, and Brendson Ribeiro
•Bukauskas recent wins against Christian Edwards and Ion Cutelaba
•Sy recent loss against Ion Cutelaba

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Oumar Sy has the output edge.

Who drives it

Oumar Sy

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Modestas Bukauskas 3.14/min vs Oumar Sy 3.41/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 92%Clinch 0%Ground 8%

Modestas Bukauskas's path

Out-volume Oumar Sy at distance; 0.11 knockdowns/min if Oumar Sy walks in.

Oumar Sy's path

Out-volume Modestas Bukauskas at distance; power on the counter if Modestas Bukauskas walks in.

What moved the number

7" reach disadvantage -2Opponent style edge -2.2

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Modestas Bukauskas
  • Oumar Sy

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.