UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood Prediction

Mairon Santos
Mairon Santos
"The Legend"
17-1
Featherweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score64
Nathaniel Wood
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
23-6

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Nathaniel Wood
Nathaniel Wood by Decision
Nathaniel Wood 99% to win · Medium confidence
Mairon Santos
1%
Nathaniel Wood
99%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Nathaniel Wood brings a significant volume advantage and proven UFC longevity against Mairon Santos, who lacks public tracking data. While Santos has earned recent wins, the lack of granular metrics makes this a speculative play favoring the established veteran's technical output."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans overlook that Nathaniel Wood's striking defense of 54% is quite leaky for a veteran, creating a high-variance environment where a newcomer like Mairon Santos could land a fight-ending blow in the pocket.

Why FightIQ Likes Wood

1
Striking

Wood averages 5.64 significant strikes per minute.

2
Wrestling

Wood defends 73% of takedown attempts.

3
Cardio

Wood has successfully gone 3 rounds on multiple occasions.

Expert Breakdown

•Wood averages 5.64 significant strikes per minute.
•Wood maintains a 51% striking accuracy.
•Wood attempts 0.47 submissions per 15 minutes.
•Santos has no public grappling metrics for analysis.
•Wood defends 73% of takedown attempts.
•Wood lands 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes.
•Wood has successfully gone 3 rounds on multiple occasions.
•Wood fights an average of 13:32 per UFC appearance.
•Wood has 0 UFC losses by way of KO/TKO.
•Santos has limited exposure to high-level striking exchanges.
•Wood has 14 UFC fights.
•Santos has no recorded UFC statistics.
•Wood has won 5 of his last 6 fights.
•Santos holds a win over Muhammad Naimov.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Nathaniel Wood has the output edge.

Who drives it

Nathaniel Wood

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Mairon Santos 3.33/min vs Nathaniel Wood 5.64/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Mairon Santos's path

Out-volume Nathaniel Wood at distance; 2 knockdowns/min if Nathaniel Wood walks in.

Nathaniel Wood's path

Out-volume Mairon Santos at distance; 0.4 knockdowns/min if Mairon Santos walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.33" reach advantage +0.9Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Mairon Santos
  • Nathaniel Wood

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.