UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere Prediction

Felipe Lima
Felipe Lima
""Jungle Boy""
14-2
Featherweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score61
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
21-12-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere by KO/TKO (R1)
Morgan Charriere 99% to win · High confidence
Felipe Lima
1%
Morgan Charriere
99%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Morgan Charriere holds the edge in offensive striking output and knockout volatility compared to Lima's more methodical approach. While Felipe Lima demonstrates better defensive wrestling metrics, Charriere's ability to hunt for finishes keeps him in a position to out-point or catch a tiring opponent over fifteen minutes."

What Everyone Misses

Casual observers often focus on Felipe Lima's high takedown defense rate (86%) while ignoring that Charriere's pressure volume forces opponents into high-stress exchanges that limit their ability to execute clean level changes, neutralizing Lima's wrestling game before it starts.

Why FightIQ Likes Charriere

1
Striking

Charriere 4.02 sig strikes/min vs Lima 2.86

2
Experience

Charriere UFC record 3-3

Expert Breakdown

•Charriere 4.02 sig strikes/min vs Lima 2.86
•Charriere 0.88 knockdowns per 15 min vs Lima 0.0
•Lima 0.73 sub attempts/15 min
•Charriere 0.29 sub attempts/15 min
•Lima 86% TD defense vs Charriere 83% TD defense
•Lima 2.18 TDs/15 vs Charriere 2.06 TDs/15
•Lima avg fight time 13:45
•Charriere avg fight time 8:30
•Charriere 1 KO/TKO loss in 6 UFC fights
•Lima 0 KO/TKO losses in career
•Charriere UFC record 3-3
•Lima UFC record 2-1
•Charriere last 3: Loss (Costa), Win (Landwehr), Loss (Wood)
•Lima last 3: Loss (Talbott), Win (Johns), Win (Naimov)

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Morgan Charriere has the output edge.

Who drives it

Morgan Charriere

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Felipe Lima 2.86/min vs Morgan Charriere 4.02/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 84%Clinch 2%Ground 14%

Felipe Lima's path

Out-volume Morgan Charriere at distance; power on the counter if Morgan Charriere walks in.

Morgan Charriere's path

Out-volume Felipe Lima at distance; 0.88 knockdowns/min if Felipe Lima walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -0.8Opponent power vs chin edge -0.9Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.3Opponent ring rust edge -0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Felipe Lima
  • Morgan Charriere

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.