UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez Prediction

Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
19-6
Middleweight bout
VS
5 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score88
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15-3

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez by Submission (R1)
Anthony Hernandez 86% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Gregory Rodrigues
13.8%
Anthony Hernandez
86.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"The rating gap is only 1 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Anthony Hernandez possesses a distinct advantage in grappling volume and submission finishing capability compared to Rodrigues's striking-heavy approach. Hernandez's ability to maintain high pressure and find openings for back-takes against high-level opponents like Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze gives him the clearer path to victory."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans overlook the massive disparity in submission threat; while Rodrigues relies on power, Hernandez is a relentless chain wrestler who forces scrambles that Rodrigues has not historically shown the defensive patience to negate.

Executive Summary

Anthony Hernandez possesses a distinct advantage in grappling volume and submission finishing capability compared to Rodrigues's striking-heavy approach. Hernandez's ability to maintain high pressure and find openings for back-takes against high-level opponents like Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze gives him the clearer path to victory.

Why FightIQ Likes Hernandez

1
Grappling

Hernandez averages 1.63 sub attempts/15.

2
Wrestling

Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns/15.

3
Cardio

Hernandez maintains high intensity in late rounds.

Expert Breakdown

•Rodrigues averages 5.53 sig-str/min with 52% accuracy.
•Hernandez maintains 61% striking accuracy despite lower volume (4.57 sig-str/min).
•Hernandez averages 1.63 sub attempts/15.
•Rodrigues has a 75% takedown defense rate.
•Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns/15.
•Rodrigues averages 1.9 takedowns/15 with only 16% accuracy.
•Hernandez maintains high intensity in late rounds.
•Rodrigues has an average fight time of 8:28.
•Neither fighter has recorded a loss by KO or Submission in the UFC.
•Both fighters have demonstrated high resilience under pressure.
•Hernandez has notable wins over Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen.
•Rodrigues holds victories over Jack Hermansson and Roman Kopylov.
•Hernandez won his last two fights against Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen.
•Rodrigues enters without an active winning streak.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Gregory Rodrigues has the output edge.

Who drives it

Gregory Rodrigues

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Gregory Rodrigues 5.53/min vs Anthony Hernandez 4.57/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 74%Clinch 4%Ground 22%

Gregory Rodrigues's path

Out-volume Anthony Hernandez at distance; 1.01 knockdowns/min if Anthony Hernandez walks in.

Anthony Hernandez's path

Out-volume Gregory Rodrigues at distance; 0.11 knockdowns/min if Gregory Rodrigues walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.9Power vs chin edge +0.9Style matchup edge +2.2Opponent age/decline edge -0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Gregory Rodrigues
  • Anthony Hernandez

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez