UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer Prediction

Elise Reed
Elise Reed
8-5
Women's strawweight bout
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score59
Shanelle Dyer
Shanelle Dyer
"The Nightmare"
7-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Shanelle Dyer
Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (R1)
Shanelle Dyer 86% to win · High confidence
Elise Reed
13.8%
Shanelle Dyer
86.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Shanelle Dyer enters with superior output and athleticism, showing significantly higher volume in her limited sample. While Elise Reed is the seasoned UFC veteran, her lack of finishing threat and high loss volume against competitors like Denise Gomes and Loopy Godinez suggests she is the lower ceiling fighter in this matchup."

What Everyone Misses

Dyer's 100% takedown defense in her limited sample is the critical pivot point; if she can neutralize Reed’s attempts to grind, Reed has no secondary path to victory as she possesses zero submission threat and limited power.

Why FightIQ Likes Dyer

1
Striking

Dyer averages 7.71 sig strikes/min vs Reed's 3.41

2
Wrestling

Dyer maintains 100% TD defense

3
Momentum

Reed is 2-3 in her last 5 fights

Expert Breakdown

•Dyer averages 7.71 sig strikes/min vs Reed's 3.41
•Reed holds a slight 53% to 47% accuracy edge
•Dyer shows 0 sub attempts
•Reed shows 0 sub attempts
•Dyer maintains 100% TD defense
•Reed struggles with 53% TD defense and 0% offensive accuracy
•Both fighters have experience in 15-minute bouts
•Dyer's high-output style poses a risk of depletion
•Reed has never been stopped by KO or sub in 5 losses
•Dyer has never been finished in her 8-fight career
•Reed has fought UFC caliber talent like Denise Gomes, Loopy Godinez, and Jinh Yu Frey
•Dyer has limited high-level experience compared to Reed
•Reed is 2-3 in her last 5 fights
•Dyer is coming off a win against Ravena Oliveira

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Shanelle Dyer has the output edge.

Who drives it

Shanelle Dyer

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Elise Reed 3.41/min vs Shanelle Dyer 7.71/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Elise Reed's path

Out-volume Shanelle Dyer at distance; 0.15 knockdowns/min if Shanelle Dyer walks in.

Shanelle Dyer's path

Out-volume Elise Reed at distance; power on the counter if Elise Reed walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -22" reach disadvantage -0.6Opponent style edge -1.7Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.6Opponent ring rust edge -1

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Elise Reed
  • Shanelle Dyer

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.