UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira Prediction

Billy Quarantillo
Billy Quarantillo
18-7
Lightweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score64
Diego Ferreira
Diego Ferreira
19-7

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Billy Quarantillo
Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Billy Quarantillo 58% to win · Low confidence
Billy Quarantillo
58%
Diego Ferreira
42%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Billy Quarantillo holds a significant striking volume advantage and a higher level of activity compared to the aging Diego Ferreira. While Ferreira has better submission credentials, Quarantillo's superior work rate and output under pressure should allow him to edge the scorecards in a closely contested bout."

What Everyone Misses

The massive age gap; at 40, Diego Ferreira is fighting deep into the decline phase of his career where reflexes and recovery lag significantly behind Quarantillo's 37-year-old output.

Why FightIQ Likes Quarantillo

1
Striking

Quarantillo lands 7.44 sig strikes/min vs Ferreira's 4.70.

2
Cardio

Quarantillo maintains high pressure for the full duration of his 11:05 average fight time.

Expert Breakdown

•Quarantillo lands 7.44 sig strikes/min vs Ferreira's 4.70.
•Quarantillo maintains a higher striking accuracy of 55%.
•Ferreira has 7 career submission wins, demonstrating higher technical proficiency.
•Quarantillo is more active with 1.02 sub attempts per 15 minutes.
•Quarantillo defends 61% of takedown attempts.
•Ferreira defends 58% of takedown attempts.
•Quarantillo maintains high pressure for the full duration of his 11:05 average fight time.
•Ferreira's average fight time is shorter at 9:43, suggesting less consistent late-round output.
•Quarantillo has 3 KO losses compared to Ferreira's 4 KO losses.
•Both fighters are in the final stages of their athletic careers.
•Ferreira has faced Grant Dawson and Alexander Hernandez.
•Quarantillo has faced Cub Swanson and Edson Barboza.
•Quarantillo is currently 1-4 in his last 5 fights.
•Ferreira is currently 1-4 in his last 5 fights.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Billy Quarantillo has the output edge.

Who drives it

Billy Quarantillo

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Billy Quarantillo 7.44/min vs Diego Ferreira 4.7/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 89%Clinch 0%Ground 11%

Billy Quarantillo's path

Out-volume Diego Ferreira at distance; 0.23 knockdowns/min if Diego Ferreira walks in.

Diego Ferreira's path

Out-volume Billy Quarantillo at distance; 0.27 knockdowns/min if Billy Quarantillo walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +0.64" reach disadvantage -1.2Style matchup edge +2.4Camp unknown 0Opponent ring rust edge -0.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Billy Quarantillo
  • Diego Ferreira

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.