UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus by Decision
Kyle Daukaus 65% to win · Low confidence
Marc-Andre Barriault
34.7%
Kyle Daukaus
65.3%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Kyle Daukaus brings a significant grappling threat and submission finishing ability that contrasts sharply with Barriault’s defensive struggles. While Barriault offers higher striking volume, Daukaus’s ability to force the fight to the ground and finish early provides a higher floor in this matchup."

What Everyone Misses

Barriault's 68% takedown defense is structurally fragile against a high-volume submission grappler like Daukaus, who generates nearly 2 sub attempts per 15 minutes; once the fight hits the floor, Barriault's lack of high-level defensive BJJ will be the deciding factor.

Why FightIQ Likes Daukaus

1
Grappling

Daukaus averages 1.97 sub attempts/15 min

2
Wrestling

Daukaus lands 1.97 takedowns/15 min compared to 0.34 for Barriault

3
Momentum

Barriault is currently on a 2-fight losing streak (losses to Michal Oleksiejczuk and Shara Magomedov)

Expert Breakdown

•Barriault lands 5.65 sig strikes/min vs Daukaus at 3.16
•Daukaus maintains a 53% accuracy compared to Barriault's 47%
•Daukaus averages 1.97 sub attempts/15 min
•Barriault has limited success in finishing via submission, with only 1 career win via that method
•Daukaus lands 1.97 takedowns/15 min compared to 0.34 for Barriault
•Daukaus boasts a 79% takedown defense rate
•Daukaus has a shorter average fight time of 7:37
•Barriault shows high output sustained over 10:21 average fight time
•Barriault has suffered 4 KO/TKO losses in his UFC career
•Daukaus has been finished via KO/TKO twice in the UFC
•Barriault has 20 UFC appearances
•Daukaus has 11 UFC appearances
•Barriault is currently on a 2-fight losing streak (losses to Michal Oleksiejczuk and Shara Magomedov)
•Daukaus is coming off a KO victory over Bo Nickal

How This Fight Plays Out

Kyle Daukaus pulls it down and subs.

Who drives it

Kyle Daukaus

Hinge stat

Marc-Andre Barriault's takedown defense

68%: if Marc-Andre Barriault stays upright it's a striking fight

Projected location

Distance 56%Clinch 3%Ground 41%

Marc-Andre Barriault's path

Keep it at distance, 5.65 strikes/min; deny the clinch.

Kyle Daukaus's path

Pull guard or chain takedowns; 1.97 sub attempts/15 on the mat.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.7Power vs chin edge +0.82" reach disadvantage -0.6Opponent southpaw edge -0.8Opponent style edge -2.4Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.9Opponent ring rust edge -0.4

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Marc-Andre Barriault
  • Kyle Daukaus

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.