UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Louis Jourdain
Louis Jourdain by Decision
Louis Jourdain 53% to win · Low confidence
Louis Jourdain
53%
Timmy Cuamba
47%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"The numbers point to Louis Jourdain, who rates 19 points higher than Timmy Cuamba (57 vs 38) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

Jourdain's high strike volume (7.32 sig-str/min) is statistically noisy because it was produced against regional-level competition, whereas Cuamba's lower volume reflects the defensive adjustment required when facing UFC-caliber fighters like Bolaji Oki and Lucas Almeida.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Louis Jourdain, who rates 19 points higher than Timmy Cuamba (57 vs 38) and holds the data-backed edge.

Why FightIQ Likes Jourdain

1
Striking

Jourdain: 7.32 sig-str/min, 49% accuracy

2
Grappling

Jourdain: 1.41 sub-attempts/15

3
Momentum

Jourdain: 4-fight win streak

Expert Breakdown

•Jourdain: 7.32 sig-str/min, 49% accuracy
•Cuamba: 2.88 sig-str/min, 43% accuracy
•Jourdain: 1.41 sub-attempts/15
•Cuamba: 0 sub-attempts/15
•Jourdain: 0 takedowns/15, 67% TD defense
•Cuamba: 1.18 takedowns/15, 71% TD defense
•Jourdain: 10:39 avg fight time
•Cuamba: 12:43 avg fight time
•Jourdain: 0 KO losses
•Cuamba: 0 KO losses
•Jourdain: 0 UFC fights
•Cuamba: 5 UFC fights
•Jourdain: 4-fight win streak
•Cuamba: Coming off a loss to Benardo Sopaj

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Louis Jourdain has the output edge.

Who drives it

Louis Jourdain

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Louis Jourdain 7.32/min vs Timmy Cuamba 2.88/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%

Louis Jourdain's path

Out-volume Timmy Cuamba at distance; 1.41 knockdowns/min if Timmy Cuamba walks in.

Timmy Cuamba's path

Out-volume Louis Jourdain at distance; 0.2 knockdowns/min if Louis Jourdain walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.7Opponent power vs chin edge -0.91" reach disadvantage -0.4Momentum edge +0.4Style matchup edge +2.1Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.3Opponent ring rust edge -0.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Louis Jourdain
  • Timmy Cuamba

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.