UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mackenzie Stiller
Mackenzie Stiller by Submission (R1)
Mackenzie Stiller 53% to win · Low confidence
Katlyn Cerminara
47%
Mackenzie Stiller
53%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"The numbers point to Mackenzie Stiller, who rates 10 points higher than Katlyn Cerminara (50 vs 40) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

Mackenzie Stiller is significantly undersized for the division at 5'2", which will make closing distance against Cerminara's 5'9" frame and 68-inch reach a nightmare; she will have to navigate a massive range disadvantage just to initiate her preferred grappling exchanges.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Mackenzie Stiller, who rates 10 points higher than Katlyn Cerminara (50 vs 40) and holds the data-backed edge.

Why FightIQ Likes Stiller

1
Grappling

Stiller finishes 83% of her wins by submission

2
Momentum

Cerminara is coming off losses to Maycee Barber and Manon Fiorot

Expert Breakdown

•Cerminara averages 4.58 sig strikes per minute
•Stiller has 0 recorded UFC striking data
•Cerminara maintains 62% striking defense
•Stiller finishes 83% of her wins by submission
•Cerminara has faced elite grapplers like Amanda Ribas and Jennifer Maia
•Stiller's grappling is entirely unproven against UFC-tier defensive wrestling
•Cerminara maintains 50% takedown defense in the UFC
•Stiller has no recorded takedown stats in the UFC
•Cerminara has faced consistent pressure from fighters like Manon Fiorot
•Cerminara has completed multiple 15-minute bouts against Maycee Barber and Viviane Araujo
•Stiller's average fight time is 0:00 with no UFC duration data
•Cerminara has only been stopped via strikes once in 16 UFC fights
•Stiller suffered a KO loss to Sumiko Inaba
•Cerminara: 16 UFC fights against Amanda Ribas, Jennifer Maia, Viviane Araujo, and Cynthia Calvillo
•Stiller: 0 UFC fights; regional experience against Kendra McIntyre and Cristina Brador
•Cerminara is coming off losses to Maycee Barber and Manon Fiorot
•Stiller is on a 3-fight win streak over Kendra McIntyre, Cristina Brador, and Sidney Trillo

How This Fight Plays Out

Mackenzie Stiller pulls it down and subs.

Who drives it

Mackenzie Stiller

Hinge stat

Katlyn Cerminara's takedown defense

50%: if Katlyn Cerminara stays upright it's a striking fight

Projected location

Distance 65%Clinch 0%Ground 34%

Katlyn Cerminara's path

Keep it at distance, 4.58 strikes/min; deny the clinch.

Mackenzie Stiller's path

Pull guard or chain takedowns; 0 sub attempts/15 on the mat.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +3.56" reach advantage +1.8Opponent style edge -0.6Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.8Opponent ring rust edge -1.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Katlyn Cerminara
  • Mackenzie Stiller