UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Prediction

Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
"Cold Blooded"
14-2
-333
Odds-333
Women's Flyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score61
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
15-4
+250
Odds+250

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield by Decision
Erin Blanchfield 69% to win · Medium confidence
Erin Blanchfield
69.4%
Jasmine Jasudavicius
30.6%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Erin Blanchfield’s superior grappling pressure and tactical submission threat give her a clear path to control the duration of the fight. While Jasmine Jasudavicius is durable and gritty, Blanchfield's ability to maintain high-level competition intensity against the likes of Rose Namajunas and Taila Santos will prove decisive."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans focus on Jasudavicius's reach advantage, but miss that Blanchfield is significantly more adept at navigating the pocket to initiate clinch work, effectively neutralizing the reach before Jasudavicius can establish her jab.

Why FightIQ Likes Blanchfield

1
Striking

Blanchfield outputs 5.24 sig strikes/min vs Jasudavicius's 3.47

2
Grappling

Blanchfield showcases 5 career submission wins

3
Cardio

Blanchfield proven in 5-round wars (Namajunas, Fiorot)

Expert Breakdown

•Blanchfield outputs 5.24 sig strikes/min vs Jasudavicius's 3.47
•Blanchfield maintains higher striking accuracy (52.82% vs 60.05% but with higher volume)
•Jasudavicius's defense at 52% leaves her vulnerable to Blanchfield's combinations
•Blanchfield showcases 5 career submission wins
•Blanchfield averages 0.86 sub attempts/15 min
•Jasudavicius has a solid 75% TD defense but faces a higher level of submission intensity here
•Jasudavicius lands 2.63 takedowns per 15 min
•Blanchfield maintains 78% TD defense
•Jasudavicius relies on wrestling to grind out wins
•Blanchfield proven in 5-round wars (Namajunas, Fiorot)
•Both fighters show consistent pace into late rounds
•Jasudavicius suffered a recent KO loss to Manon Fiorot
•Blanchfield has never been finished in her professional career
•Blanchfield has competed against Namajunas, Fiorot, and Santos
•Jasudavicius has faced Fiorot, Andrade, and Bueno Silva
•Blanchfield is on a 2-fight winning streak
•Jasudavicius is coming off a win over Karine Silva after a loss

How This Fight Plays Out

Erin Blanchfield edges it on the feet; Jasmine Jasudavicius needs the takedown to flip the script.

Who drives it

Erin Blanchfield

Hinge stat

Erin Blanchfield's takedown defense

78%: 78% TDD is high; Jasmine Jasudavicius can still grind but the edge tilts to Erin Blanchfield

Projected location

Distance 76%Clinch 7%Ground 18%

Erin Blanchfield's path

Defend Jasmine Jasudavicius's entries; if you sprawl, 5.24 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's path

Shoot behind 2.63 takedowns/15 at 46.03% accuracy vs Erin Blanchfield's 78% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.

What moved the number

2" reach disadvantage -0.6Style matchup edge +2.7Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +1.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Erin Blanchfield
  • Jasmine Jasudavicius
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius