UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Cody Chovancek
Cody Chovancek by Decision
Cody Chovancek 53% to win · Low confidence
Cody Chovancek
53%
SuYoung You
47%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"The numbers point to Cody Chovancek, who rates 17 points higher than SuYoung You (63 vs 46) and holds the data-backed edge."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans will over-index on Chovancek's undefeated regional record, ignoring that You's 5-1 UFC record was built against high-pressure grinders; You is significantly more adjusted to the pace of UFC-level cage time than an undefeated newcomer.

Executive Summary

The numbers point to Cody Chovancek, who rates 17 points higher than SuYoung You (63 vs 46) and holds the data-backed edge.

Why FightIQ Likes Chovancek

1
Wrestling

Chovancek shows 83% takedown defense.

2
Momentum

You is 5-1 in his last 6 fights.

Expert Breakdown

•SuYoung You averages 4.22 sig strikes/min.
•Cody Chovancek lands 2.85 sig strikes/min.
•You has 0.5 sub attempts/15 minutes.
•Chovancek has 0 sub attempts/15 minutes.
•Chovancek shows 83% takedown defense.
•You shows 46% takedown defense.
•You has gone to decision in 5 of his last 6 fights.
•Chovancek went 5 rounds in his win over Jordan Howard.
•You has never been finished by KO.
•Chovancek has 0 professional losses.
•You has 6 UFC appearances.
•Chovancek has 0 UFC appearances.
•You is 5-1 in his last 6 fights.
•Chovancek is currently on a 9-fight win streak.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, SuYoung You has the output edge.

Who drives it

SuYoung You

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Cody Chovancek 2.85/min vs SuYoung You 4.22/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Cody Chovancek's path

Out-volume SuYoung You at distance; power on the counter if SuYoung You walks in.

SuYoung You's path

Out-volume Cody Chovancek at distance; power on the counter if Cody Chovancek walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.53" reach advantage +0.8Momentum edge +1Opponent style edge -1.5Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.6Opponent ring rust edge -0.4

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Cody Chovancek
  • SuYoung You

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.