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Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes Prediction

Karine Silva
Karine Silva
"Killer"
19-7
W Flyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score54
Gabriella Fernandes
Gabriella Fernandes
"Gabi"
11-4

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Karine Silva
Karine Silva by Decision
Karine Silva 57% to win · Medium confidence
Karine Silva
58%
Gabriella Fernandes
42%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"While Karine Silva is on a losing skid, her clear grappling upside and ability to finish fights provide a distinct advantage over Fernandes. Fernandes' lack of offensive wrestling and defensive vulnerabilities make her a prime target for Silva to return to her submission-based winning ways."

What Everyone Misses

The discrepancy in finishing intent; Silva hunts for the fight-ending submission immediately (3 first-round submissions), whereas Fernandes operates at a lower threat level, relying on point-fighting that rarely leads to high-reward finishes.

FightIQ Blog

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes Prediction and Pick

Karine Silva secures a hard fought decision victory against Gabriella Fernandes in this flyweight clash. She navigates the striking exchanges to maintain control over 3 rounds.

Why FightIQ Likes Silva

1
Grappling

Silva averages 1.6 submission attempts/15 min.

2
Wrestling

Silva shows 1.93 takedowns/15 min with 50% accuracy.

3
Durability

Fernandes suffered a R1 KO/TKO loss to Casey O'Neill.

Expert Breakdown

•Fernandes lands 3.51 sig. strikes/min at 46% accuracy.
•Silva lands 2.24 sig. strikes/min at 38% accuracy.
•Silva averages 1.6 submission attempts/15 min.
•Fernandes averages 0.2 submission attempts/15 min.
•Silva shows 1.93 takedowns/15 min with 50% accuracy.
•Fernandes has 0.42 takedowns/15 min with 18% accuracy.
•Both fighters have relied on 3-round distance consistency in the UFC.
•Silva has logged multiple 15-minute efforts against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Maycee Barber.
•Fernandes suffered a R1 KO/TKO loss to Casey O'Neill.
•Silva has never been finished by KO/TKO in her career.
•Silva has competed against Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
•Fernandes has faced Casey O'Neill and Julija Stoliarenko.
•Silva is coming off losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Maycee Barber.
•Fernandes is coming off a loss to Casey O'Neill following a win over Julija Stoliarenko.

How This Fight Plays Out

Coin-flip on where it goes, hinges on Gabriella Fernandes's TDD vs Karine Silva's entries.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

Gabriella Fernandes's takedown defense

68%: 68% TDD is middle-of-the-road, the entries decide it

Projected location

Distance 77%Clinch 4%Ground 19%

Karine Silva's path

Shoot behind 1.93 takedowns/15 at 50% accuracy vs Gabriella Fernandes's 68% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

Gabriella Fernandes's path

Defend Karine Silva's entries; if you sprawl, 3.51 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.9Opponent southpaw edge -0.8Camp unknown 0

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Karine Silva
  • Gabriella Fernandes

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.