UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady Prediction

Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Welterweight
VS
5 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score64
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
19-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Sean Brady
Sean Brady by Decision
Sean Brady 57% to win · Medium confidence
Gabriel Bonfim
42.9%
Sean Brady
57.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The FightIQ ratings gap is only 14 points, so this is a toss-up rather than a real edge. Treat it as a coin flip. Sean Brady holds a significant FightIQ rating advantage of 88 to 74 and superior wrestling metrics that will allow him to dictate the location of the fight. While Gabriel Bonfim is on a solid winning streak, Brady's experience against high-level opponents like Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns makes him the safer pick to secure control time and win the scorecards."

What Everyone Misses

Casual observers focus on Bonfim's 5-fight winning streak, but they overlook that Brady’s 86% takedown defense is the statistical wall that will prevent Bonfim from implementing his D'Arce-heavy submission game, forcing Bonfim into a striking match where Brady is more efficient.

Executive Summary

Sean Brady holds a significant FightIQ rating advantage of 88 to 74 and superior wrestling metrics that will allow him to dictate the location of the fight. While Gabriel Bonfim is on a solid winning streak, Brady's experience against high-level opponents like Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns makes him the safer pick to secure control time and win the scorecards.

FightIQ Blog

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady Prediction and Pick

Sean Brady earns a hard fought decision victory over Gabriel Bonfim in their 5 round welterweight main event. This clash showcases the tactical grappling pressure of Brady against the opportunistic finishing style of the younger challenger.

Why FightIQ Likes Brady

1
Striking

Brady lands at 53% accuracy compared to Bonfim's 0.47%

2
Grappling

Brady averages 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes

3
Wrestling

Brady boasts an 86% takedown defense rating

Expert Breakdown

•Brady lands at 53% accuracy compared to Bonfim's 0.47%
•Brady maintains a higher defensive floor at 59%
•Brady averages 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Bonfim records 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Brady boasts an 86% takedown defense rating
•Brady maintains superior takedown frequency at 3.58 per 15 mins
•Brady went 5 rounds against Gilbert Burns
•Bonfim went 5 rounds against Belal Muhammad
•Bonfim has 1 career KO/TKO loss
•Brady has 1 career KO/TKO loss
•Brady has faced Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns
•Bonfim has faced Belal Muhammad and Stephen Thompson
•Bonfim is currently on a 5-fight win streak
•Brady is coming off a win over Joaquin Buckley

How This Fight Plays Out

Grappling match, Sean Brady has the takedown volume edge.

Who drives it

Sean Brady

Hinge stat

takedown defense vs takedown volume

Gabriel Bonfim 0.79% / Sean Brady 86%: who lands on top decides the rounds

Projected location

Distance 40%Clinch 23%Ground 38%

Gabriel Bonfim's path

Out-wrestle Sean Brady, 2.57 TD/15; win the top position exchanges.

Sean Brady's path

Match the wrestling, 3.58 TD/15; deny Gabriel Bonfim's entries and reverse position.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -6.3Momentum edge +0.5Opponent style edge -1.9Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Gabriel Bonfim
  • Sean Brady

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
Sean Brady
Sean Brady